As the 2026 NFL Draft approaches, quarterback-needy teams are facing a familiar dilemma: a thin class of prospects that offers little beyond its clear top talent. The Las Vegas Raiders are poised to select Indiana's Fernando Mendoza with the No. 1 overall pick, according to projections from ESPN's Scouts Inc., but the drop-off to the rest of the field is steep, leaving franchises like the New York Jets, Arizona Cardinals, Cleveland Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers grappling with uncertainty at the position.
Mendoza, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner and national champion from Indiana, stands out as the consensus top quarterback in this year's class. In his final college season in 2025, he threw for 3,535 yards and 41 touchdowns, posting the highest passer rating in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS). ESPN analyst Aaron Schatz, in a detailed projection piece, compared Mendoza's trajectory to that of Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, noting that both were relatively unknown entering their senior years before explosive breakthroughs. "Both quarterbacks were relatively unknown heading into their final season of college, and both went on to win the Heisman Trophy and the national championship," Schatz wrote.
Despite the accolades, Mendoza's projection isn't without caveats. Using the QBASE 2.0 model—a blend of statistical analysis factoring in passing efficiency adjusted for teammates and opponents, starting experience, rushing ability, and penalties for one-year wonders—Schatz estimates Mendoza's career value at a level worthy of the top pick but not quite matching multi-year standouts like Jacksonville Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence or Chicago Bears' Caleb Williams. The model, which runs 50,000 simulations to forecast outcomes, pegs a replacement-level performance at 0 total defense-adjusted yards above replacement per attempt (TDYAR/A), with anything over 1.5 signaling Hall of Fame potential. For Mendoza, the projections suggest a solid but not elite floor, with Scouts Inc. ranking him No. 2 overall among prospects.
With Mendoza off the board early, the pressure mounts for other teams desperate for a franchise signal-caller. Schatz highlighted the risk of reaching for less proven talents, pointing to Alabama's Ty Simpson as a potential first-round surprise. Ranked No. 37 by Scouts Inc., Simpson threw for 3,567 yards and 28 touchdowns in 2025 as a true one-year starter. However, his lack of experience draws unfavorable comparisons to past high picks like Mitchell Trubisky, Dwayne Haskins, Trey Lance, and Anthony Richardson Sr., none of whom fully met expectations. "Even fellow inexperienced Alabama quarterback Mac Jones started for part of his second-to-last season of college football, and Jones put up much better numbers than Simpson, albeit with a stronger supporting cast," Schatz observed, emphasizing that Simpson lacks the elite traits or volume to justify a top selection statistically.
The quarterback carousel doesn't improve much further down the board. LSU's Garrett Nussmeier, ranked No. 87 by Scouts Inc., raises red flags with his mobility—or lack thereof. His career rushing yards per attempt sit at minus-2.2, a figure that includes sacks as negative rushes, indicating not just immobility but a propensity for holding the ball too long. Schatz referenced a grim list of similar prospects since 2005, including Andrew Walter, Jimmy Clausen, Brandon Weeden, Nick Foles, Mike Glennon, Sean Mannion, and Cody Kessler. While Foles enjoyed a fairy-tale Super Bowl run with the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles, the group largely failed to sustain starting roles in the NFL. "Immobile and sack-prone prospects have not" succeeded long-term, Schatz noted, contrasting Nussmeier with more successful pocket passers like Detroit Lions' Jared Goff.
Another contender, Miami's Carson Beck, enters the mix with a backstory of resilience but middling recent production. Beck suffered a UCL tear in his throwing elbow during the 2024 SEC Championship Game while at Georgia, yet he returned for another season, transferring to Miami and leading the Hurricanes to the national championship game against Indiana. In 2023 at Georgia, Beck threw for 3,941 yards—the third-best mark in the FBS—and rushed for 116 yards on 60 carries. But in 2025, his numbers dipped to 3,813 passing yards and a meager 43 rushing yards on 62 carries. Scouts Inc. ranks him No. 118, and while the extra year added experience, it didn't boost his statistical profile, per QBASE 2.0 evaluations.
Penn State's Drew Allar rounds out the group of potential Day 2 selections, ranked No. 131 by Scouts Inc. Allar boasts the class's best mobility, averaging 4.8 rushing yards per attempt in 2025 before a season-ending ankle injury in October sidelined him. His arm strength and athleticism evoke high ceilings, drawing loose parallels to Buffalo Bills' Josh Allen or Baltimore Ravens' Lamar Jackson, though he's not a full dual-threat in their mold. Concerns linger over his 64.8% completion percentage and regressing passing stats from 2024 to 2025. "Of the potential Day 2 quarterbacks in this year's class, Allar's mobility and arm strength give him the highest ceiling, but his bust risk remains high," Schatz reported.
Beyond individual profiles, the 2026 class reflects broader trends in college football and the NFL. Schatz recalled his previous year's analysis, where he predicted teams might wait out the underwhelming 2025 group for 2026—only to find this draft resembling its predecessor more than the star-studded 2024 edition. A key factor: the rise of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deals, enabling top talents like Oregon's Dante Moore and Texas' Arch Manning to return to school rather than enter the draft. Moore, who could have been the No. 2 pick this year, and Manning are now eyed for 2027, potentially tempting general managers to exercise patience amid current voids.
Teams like the Jets, coming off a disappointing 2025 season with Aaron Rodgers' future unclear, the Cardinals rebuilding around Kyler Murray's inconsistencies, the Browns navigating Deshaun Watson's contract and performance issues, and the Steelers seeking stability post-Russell Wilson, all face mounting pressure. In recent drafts, the premium on quarterbacks has led to risky selections, as seen with the top-10 picks of one-year wonders. Schatz questioned whether a GM under the gun would "reach into the first round to select a prospect such as Ty Simpson," citing the position's outsized importance.
The QBASE 2.0 model's insights underscore the class's limitations. Developed from Andrew Healy's 2015 original and enhanced by Alexandre Olbrecht and Jeremy Rosen's 2018 functional mobility metrics, it adjusts college stats for context and rewards sustained improvement. For the five highlighted quarterbacks, simulations show slim odds of elite outcomes beyond Mendoza. "We estimate that there is only a 15.2% chance that at least one of the other four quarterbacks listed here develops into an 'upper tier' or 'elite' starter in the NFL," Schatz projected, a stark reminder of the draft's volatility.
Olbrecht and Rosen, contributors to the analysis, emphasized the model's balance of passing and rushing elements, penalizing outliers like one-season stars. This approach has proven prescient in past evaluations, identifying safer bets amid hype. For instance, Mendoza's penalty for his late bloom tempers his score compared to Lawrence or Williams, who built resumes over multiple years.
Looking ahead, the 2026 draft—set for late April in a yet-to-be-announced host city—could force creative solutions. Free agency and trades might fill short-term gaps, but long-term planning hinges on whether teams buy into the projections or chase potential. The Raiders, holding the top pick after a 4-13 finish in 2025, appear locked in on Mendoza, per league insiders. For others, the temptation to overreach looms large, especially with 2027's bolstered class on the horizon.
In a league where quarterbacks drive success—evidenced by Super Bowl winners from the past decade all featuring top-15 drafted or developed signal-callers—the stakes are immense. As Schatz put it, "The real story might be the quarterbacks not in this year's class," pointing to NIL's role in reshaping timelines. Whether patience prevails or panic sets in, the 2026 draft promises to test front offices' resolve.
Ultimately, this class's narrative is one of scarcity amid necessity, with Mendoza as the lone beacon in a foggy landscape. Teams will weigh QBASE's data against scouting tapes and workouts at the NFL Combine in February 2026 in Indianapolis, where these prospects' live performances could shift perceptions. For now, the projections paint a cautious picture, urging measured expectations in a position that tolerates no mistakes.