SHANGHAI — American soybean farmers are making a concerted push to revive sales in China amid ongoing trade tensions under President Donald Trump's administration, following a recent high-level meeting that offered glimmers of hope but left key uncertainties unresolved.
At the China International Import Expo in Shanghai last week, Illinois farmer Scott Gaffner arrived with a clear mission: to salvage his family's business ties with what was once a vital market. Gaffner, a member of the U.S. Soybean Export Council, told reporters that his operation typically exports 40% of its annual soybean crop to China. This year, however, that figure has plummeted to zero due to the lingering effects of the trade war.
"We want to make sure that our soybeans are getting exported to China because it's a very important market to us," Gaffner said during an interview at the expo.
The backdrop for Gaffner's visit was a late-October summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in the South Korean city of Busan. According to White House statements, the meeting led to China agreeing to lift retaliatory tariffs on certain U.S. agricultural products. Yet, a 13% tariff on American soybeans remains in place, continuing to hamper exports.
White House officials announced that China has committed to purchasing 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of this year, with plans for 25 million tons annually over the next three years. This would mark a significant uptick, though it falls short of the nearly 27 million metric tons China imported from the U.S. in 2024. Chinese authorities have not publicly confirmed these figures, leaving room for skepticism among industry observers.
Jim Sutter, CEO of the U.S. Soybean Export Council, expressed cautious optimism while manning his group's booth at the expo. "We'd like to have just kind of a continuation of smooth sailing," Sutter said. But he added a note of realism: "Do I think that's realistic? I don't know. These are two big, powerful countries, a lot of issues."
The expo, an annual event showcasing international trade opportunities, provided a platform for American farmers to directly engage with Chinese buyers. Gaffner described the stark changes in his operations caused by the trade disruptions. Normally, his soybeans would be harvested and shipped directly via river routes to Louisiana ports for export to China. Instead, with demand stalled, they've been stored in on-farm bins, creating financial strain.
"Normally, whenever we are combining the soybeans, we're going take them right to the river, down the river to Louisiana and then ship out to China," Gaffner explained. "But with China not buying any soybeans, we're taking them right to our bins, and we're storing them in our bins."
Toward the end of his trip, Gaffner received encouraging news: a call confirming the sale of one shipment. "We like no trade war, because hopefully that levels the playing field," he said. "We just want to do business."
Eric Zheng, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, offered a broader perspective on the U.S.-China relationship. Speaking last week, Zheng noted that the two nations have "stabilized the relationship for now," but emphasized that "structural differences remain." His comments highlight the precarious balance achieved post-Busan, where immediate tariffs were eased but deeper economic frictions persist.
The current negotiations come against a history of volatility. Even before Trump's first term escalated the trade war, China had begun diversifying its soybean imports, increasingly turning to suppliers like Brazil and Argentina. As tensions mounted, Beijing deliberately halted U.S. purchases to exert pressure, a strategy that inflicted substantial losses on American agriculture.
Farmers like Gaffner have borne the brunt of these policies. The Gaffner Family Farm, based in Illinois, represents thousands of similar operations across the Midwest that rely on exports for profitability. The trade war's onset in 2018 led to retaliatory tariffs that slashed U.S. soybean exports to China by over 70% in some years, prompting federal bailouts and forcing many growers to seek alternative markets or store surplus crops.
Despite the recent agreements, uncertainty looms. China's diversification efforts have accelerated, with Brazilian soybeans now dominating its import market due to competitive pricing and reliable supply chains. Analysts suggest that even if tariffs are fully lifted, regaining pre-trade war market share could take years, as Chinese buyers have established new long-term contracts elsewhere.
Sutter's group, the U.S. Soybean Export Council, has been actively promoting American products at events like the Shanghai expo to rebuild trust. The council reports that U.S. soybeans are prized for their quality and protein content, but price competitiveness remains a hurdle with the 13% tariff still in effect. "It's about getting back to business as usual," one council representative said, though they acknowledged the challenges posed by geopolitical factors.
Looking ahead, the soybean deal could serve as a bellwether for broader U.S.-China trade relations under Trump's renewed focus on tariffs and economic nationalism. With the White House pushing for increased agricultural purchases as part of any truce, farmers are hopeful but wary. If China follows through on the pledged volumes—12 million tons this year and 25 million annually thereafter—it could provide much-needed relief to rural economies hit hard by years of uncertainty.
Yet, without confirmation from Beijing, doubts persist. Zheng's assessment of "structural differences" points to ongoing issues like technology transfers, intellectual property rights, and market access that could derail progress. As Gaffner and his peers return home, the fate of their harvests hangs in the balance, emblematic of the high-stakes dance between the world's two largest economies.
In the meantime, events like the import expo underscore the human element of trade disputes. Farmers from states like Illinois, Iowa, and Nebraska continue to advocate for open markets, emphasizing that agriculture should not be a pawn in international power plays. As one attendee put it, the goal is simple: a level playing field where quality products can compete fairly.
The broader implications extend beyond soybeans. U.S. agricultural exports to China totaled over $26 billion in peak years, supporting jobs in farming, transportation, and processing. A sustained recovery could bolster rural communities, but failure to resolve tariffs might accelerate shifts toward other global suppliers, reshaping trade patterns for decades.
As Trump's administration navigates these waters, stakeholders on both sides watch closely. For now, the Busan agreement offers a tentative step forward, but as Sutter noted, the path to "smooth sailing" remains fraught with obstacles.