Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson has outlined earnings projections extending to 2028 in a mid-year outlook note released earlier this month, offering investors a longer-term view amid ongoing market uncertainties.
Wilson projects earnings per share for the S&P 500 at $339 in 2026, reflecting 23 percent growth from prior levels, followed by $380 in 2027 for 12 percent growth and $429 in 2028 for an additional 13 percent increase, according to the note.
These figures align closely with broader Wall Street consensus estimates, which anticipate earnings reaching $427 per share in 2028 after 12 percent year-over-year growth, Wilson noted in his analysis.
"Positive operating leverage, AI adoption/'run it lean,' improving pricing power, and an AI capex cycle that continues to show momentum are key drivers of our constructive view on earnings," Wilson wrote.
The projections come as companies demonstrate sustained ability to pass along costs to customers, a trend that has helped offset inflationary pressures in recent years, the note added.
Wilson highlighted that earnings growth remains the primary long-term factor influencing stock prices, even as the pace of expansion is expected to moderate from recent highs.
Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, has separately examined how current five-year earnings growth estimates stack up against historical benchmarks, finding that anticipated rates stay robust despite the projected slowdown.
"We see 2026 EPS of $339 (23% growth), 2027 EPS of $380 (12% growth), and 2028 EPS of $429 (13% growth)," Wilson stated in the document.
While the AI-related narrative is still developing, adoption trends are accelerating and could support corporate profitability through efficiency gains and new investment cycles, according to the Morgan Stanley outlook.
Analysts acknowledge that forecasts this far ahead carry inherent uncertainties, with unexpected events capable of altering trajectories between now and 2028.
Nevertheless, publicly traded companies are positioned to pursue earnings expansion aggressively, drawing on established strategies such as operational efficiencies and pricing adjustments.
The decelerating growth rates outlined in the projections may ease concerns among some investors who viewed recent expansion as overheated, though the overall trajectory remains positive compared to long-term averages.
Market participants continue to monitor these forward estimates closely, as they factor heavily into valuations for equities in the years ahead.
Wilson's assessment provides one data point in a landscape where multiple firms issue periodic updates on corporate earnings trajectories.