By David Kim
The Appleton Times
SYDNEY, Australia — Australia's once-celebrated child vaccination program, which achieved a national target of 95% immunization for one-year-olds before the COVID-19 pandemic, is now experiencing a sharp decline, leaving some regions with coverage barely reaching 80%. According to a recent analysis by the Grattan Institute, published on The Conversation, the proportion of fully vaccinated one-year-olds has dropped to 92% in the year ending September 30, 2025, down from 95% in 2020. This slide has raised alarms among public health experts, as it increases the risk of outbreaks for diseases like measles, mumps, and whooping cough.
The Grattan Institute report highlights that high vaccination rates are crucial for achieving herd immunity, the threshold where diseases struggle to spread even among unvaccinated individuals, such as infants too young for shots or those with compromised immune systems. 'When 95% of children are vaccinated, it’s difficult for even highly infectious diseases such as measles to spread in the community, protecting both the vaccinated and unvaccinated,' the analysis states. Yet, with rates dipping below this level in many areas, vulnerable children face heightened dangers from illnesses that can lead to hospitalization, lifelong complications, or even death.
Recent data underscores the urgency. Notifications of whooping cough, also known as pertussis, have reached the highest levels since records began 35 years ago. In the past week alone, measles exposure sites were reported in Sydney and regional New South Wales, including hospitals and a high school hall, prompting public health warnings. One-year-olds who are fully immunized have received protection against diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, polio, hepatitis B, Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib), and pneumococcal disease, but incomplete coverage leaves gaps in this protective shield.
The decline is not uniform across Australia. Five years ago, 56% of regions and suburbs met the national 95% target for one-year-old vaccinations; today, that figure has plummeted to just 18%. The Grattan Institute found that the biggest drops have occurred in areas where children were already more vulnerable. In the 10% of areas with the highest vaccination rates, coverage slipped by only 1.3 percentage points, from 98% in 2020 to 97% in 2025. However, in the lowest-performing 10% of areas, the fall was more dramatic, dropping 5.7 percentage points from 90% to 84%.
Almost no region has seen an increase in vaccination rates, and every state reports areas with significant declines. The report notes that communities with dangerously low coverage defy a single profile: they span urban and rural settings, affluent and low-income neighborhoods, and are present in every capital city. For instance, some of the sharpest surges in unvaccinated one-year-olds — though the text cuts off specifics — are evident in diverse locales, emphasizing the widespread nature of the issue.
Public health officials point to a combination of factors driving this trend. A major survey cited in the analysis suggests psychological barriers, fueled by misinformation and the heated debates surrounding COVID-19 vaccines, have eroded trust. Among parents of unvaccinated children, nearly half expressed doubts about vaccine safety. 'Misinformation and the intense debate around COVID vaccines has likely eroded trust in childhood vaccination,' the Grattan Institute analysis reports.
Practical obstacles also play a significant role. One in four parents with partially vaccinated children cited difficulty in securing timely appointments as a barrier. The post-pandemic landscape has made routine vaccinations harder to access, with disruptions to healthcare services lingering in many areas. This mix of hesitancy and logistics has compounded the challenge, particularly in underserved communities.
Looking internationally, Australia's situation mirrors concerning trends elsewhere. In the United States, dozens of people have been hospitalized with measles this year alone. Canada recently lost its measles elimination status, while an outbreak in London has led to child hospitalizations and potential school exclusions for unvaccinated students. These examples serve as cautionary tales, illustrating the consequences of waning immunization rates. 'We don’t want to end up like other countries,' the analysis warns, referencing these global setbacks.
Prior to the pandemic, Australia's child vaccination program was hailed as one of the world's best, consistently hitting or exceeding the 95% target. This success stemmed from coordinated federal and state efforts, including incentives like the No Jab, No Pay policy, which ties family benefits to immunization compliance. The program's effectiveness was evident in near-elimination of vaccine-preventable diseases, but the COVID-19 era introduced new complexities, including vaccine fatigue and conspiracy theories that spilled over into routine childhood shots.
The Grattan Institute emphasizes that the declines have been unprecedented over the past five years. 'Australia has recorded an unprecedented slide in the proportion of one-year-olds who are fully vaccinated,' the report states. This erosion threatens not just individual children but entire communities, as herd immunity falters and outbreaks become more likely. Health authorities have noted that even small drops in coverage can have outsized impacts on highly contagious diseases like measles, which requires 95% immunization to prevent widespread transmission.
In response, Australia's federal and state governments have outlined a new national vaccination strategy, agreed upon last year. This plan focuses on rebuilding trust, bolstering the immunization workforce, leveraging data for targeted interventions, and enhancing accountability. However, experts stress that strategy alone is insufficient without funding. The true measure of commitment will come in upcoming federal and state budgets, where investments are needed to translate words into action.
Proposed investments include combating misinformation through community belief research, tailored advertising, and training for health workers to address skepticism. Modernizing data systems to better track trends and direct resources is another priority. Expanding vaccination delivery to non-traditional sites — such as workplaces, community centers, and even homes — could improve access, particularly for busy or remote families. Additionally, the strategy calls for stricter targets to prevent further slippage in lagging areas and localized funding to address specific needs.
While the Grattan Institute analysis provides a comprehensive overview, it draws on government data and surveys without naming specific officials for quotes. Public health bodies like the Australian Department of Health have echoed these concerns in recent statements, urging parents to stay current on schedules. No conflicting reports emerged from cross-verification with available sources, which largely align on the downward trend and its risks.
The implications extend beyond immediate outbreaks. Low vaccination rates exacerbate inequalities, hitting hardest in vulnerable populations where access and trust are already strained. As whooping cough cases surge and measles exposures multiply, the pressure mounts on healthcare systems still recovering from the pandemic. Restoring pre-2020 levels will require renewed public engagement and policy muscle, but history shows Australia is capable of ambitious turnarounds in immunization.
Governments must now step up, the analysis concludes. 'Australia has hit ambitious vaccination targets before. Getting back to pre-pandemic levels will be harder than achieving them the first time, so governments must step up and redouble their efforts to protect Australia’s children.' With budgets on the horizon, the coming months will reveal whether this public health success story can be revived before preventable diseases claim more ground.