BELEM, Brazil — As world leaders and delegates gathered under the relentless tropical rain in this Amazonian city for the opening of COP30, the United Nations climate summit, the absence of key global powers cast a long shadow over the proceedings. On Friday, November 7, 2025, the event kicked off with high-profile appearances from Britain's Prince William and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, who both emphasized the urgency of global action against climate change. However, the no-shows from the leaders of China, the United States, and India — the planet's top three emitters of greenhouse gases — raised questions about the summit's potential for meaningful breakthroughs.
The summit, held in a temporary venue where rain pounded on tarpaulin roofs, began with what some described as a diplomatic boost from the UK contingent. Prince William, attending events including the Earthshot Prize, played volleyball and football with locals ahead of the main talks, according to reports from the scene. Sir Keir Starmer, in his remarks, reaffirmed the UK's commitment to combating climate change and called on other nations to step up their efforts. But as Sky News science and technology editor Tom Clarke reported from Belem, 'Sir Keir and Prince William's presence doesn't make up for the geopolitical weight of the elephants not in the room.'
The most notable absence is that of the United States, following President Donald Trump's highly publicized decision to withdraw from the UN climate talks. This move, formalized before the summit, means there is no official US delegation present in Belem. Clarke noted that the US, as the world's largest economy, largest oil and gas producer, and a major market for renewable energy, previously held significant deal-making power at these gatherings. Without American broadcasters on site either, he added, 'for Americans, this meeting may as well not be happening at all.'
China and India, while also skipping leader-level attendance, have sent high-level representatives. China's delegation is led by Vice-Premier Ding Xuexiang, described as the country's highest-ranking politician after President Xi Jinping. India has similarly dispatched senior officials, though specifics on their representatives were not detailed in initial reports. According to Clarke, these nations, despite not emphasizing 'eco-messaging,' are actively driving a rapid transition from fossil fuels to renewables like wind, solar, and nuclear power — a shift he called 'the most rapid the world has ever seen.'
The summit's agenda includes critical discussions on meeting the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aimed to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, with efforts to cap it at 1.5 degrees. However, as Clarke pointed out, 'The commitments of the Paris agreement of a decade ago have been missed by a wide margin.' He reported that the world is on track to exceed 1.5 degrees of warming and likely surpass 2 degrees as well. This grim outlook comes amid broader questions about the efficacy of the COP process, now in its 30th iteration.
Despite the absences, optimism persists among some participants. The real negotiations at COP summits are often handled not by heads of state but by seasoned diplomats and negotiators, known as 'sherpas,' many of whom have been involved for decades. Clarke highlighted this, saying, 'The real work at these summits isn't done by heads of state, but experienced sherpas, some of whom have trodden the nylon carpeted corridors of COP for 30 years.' These experts are tasked with hammering out agreements on issues like emissions reductions, climate finance, and adaptation strategies.
It's reasonable to ask what they've achieved in all that time. The world is about to blow past 1.5 degrees of warming and almost certainly exceed two degrees as well. But when the Paris deal was signed, the trajectory was for four degrees of warming. There are good COPs and bad COPs, but the world is undoubtedly a safer place now than it would have been without them.
This assessment from Clarke underscores a mixed legacy for the COP process. While progress has been slower than hoped, the summits have altered the global trajectory on climate action. For instance, without the Paris Agreement, projections suggested warming could reach 4 degrees Celsius by century's end, a scenario now averted through collective commitments, even if imperfectly met.
Background on COP30 reveals ongoing controversies. The choice of Belem, in the heart of the Amazon rainforest, highlights Brazil's role as host amid its own environmental challenges, including deforestation and recent deadly raids in Rio de Janeiro against drug gangs, which have drawn international attention. Reports from Sky News also noted related stories, such as families mourning dozens killed in what was described as Rio's 'biggest' raid against a drugs gang, though not directly tied to the climate talks.
Prince William's visit extends beyond the summit, with his team aiming to refocus attention on environmental initiatives like the Earthshot Prize, scheduled during his time in Brazil. This comes amid efforts to steer media focus away from unrelated royal family matters, such as those involving Prince Andrew. According to sources, William's activities, including casual sports engagements with locals, are intended to humanize the climate message and build grassroots support.
Broader context includes debates over whether 'net zero' goals are still viable. Sky News posed the question 'Is net zero dead?' in related coverage, reflecting skepticism amid rising emissions from major economies. The controversy surrounding COP30 stems from these absences and the perceived weakening of multilateral efforts, especially with the US pullout under Trump, who has historically downplayed climate change.
Multiple viewpoints emerge on the summit's prospects. Optimists point to the presence of delegations from China and India, which are investing heavily in clean energy. China, for example, leads the world in solar and wind installations, while India has ambitious renewable targets. Critics, however, argue that without top leaders, binding commitments may falter. Clarke's reporting captures this duality, noting that while the absences make progress 'even harder,' the process isn't necessarily 'doomed.'
Looking ahead, the summit runs through November 2025, with key sessions expected to address climate finance for developing nations, loss and damage funds, and updated national pledges. Officials said that without US participation, negotiations on trade-related climate measures could stall, but European Union representatives and others from the Global South are poised to push forward. Broader implications include potential setbacks in global emissions reductions, with experts warning that missing the 1.5-degree target could lead to more severe weather events, biodiversity loss, and economic disruptions.
As the talks progress, attention will turn to whether the 'sherpas' can bridge divides. In Clarke's words, the potential for change at COP is 'limited not by who turned up, but by the elephants not in the room.' Yet, with the world already warmer and the stakes higher, the summit's outcomes could define international climate efforts for years to come. Delegates reportedly aim to build on past successes, even as they grapple with the realities of geopolitical absences and unfulfilled promises.
The absence of major emitters underscores a pivotal moment for climate diplomacy. If COP30 yields substantive agreements, it could reinvigorate faith in the UN process; if not, calls for reform may grow louder. As rain continues to fall in Belem, symbolizing the environmental urgency, the world watches to see if this gathering can defy the odds and deliver progress amid notable voids.