President Donald Trump on Wednesday endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Republican primary runoff for the U.S. Senate, a move that has left many in the party stunned and raised questions about the future of the seat in a state long considered reliably red.
Trump’s decision came after months of speculation and gives Paxton a late boost in his challenge to incumbent Sen. John Cornyn. The endorsement pits a longtime MAGA ally against an establishment favorite in what has already become the most expensive primary runoff in history.
Cornyn, speaking at a campaign event hours after the announcement, warned that nominating the “scandal-plagued Paxton” could put control of the Senate at risk. “Paxton would be an albatross around the neck of our candidates,” Cornyn said, according to KTSM 9 News. He added that Paxton would likely lose to Democrat James Talarico in November.
Republican senators in Washington appeared stunned and livid as news of the endorsement spread, The New York Times reported. Many had urged the White House to back Cornyn, viewing him as a stronger general-election candidate. Trump’s choice was seen by some as a direct message to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, an institutionalist like Cornyn.
“I’m sad personally for John Cornyn, and I hope he’s successful in his election regardless,” one Republican senator told The Hill. “I’m sad for the institution.” Longtime Trump ally Steve Bannon told The Wall Street Journal that the move was “as much about President Trump sending a message to John Thune as the leader of the Senate as it is about an endorsement of Ken Paxton.”
Trump’s eleventh-hour decision reflected his renewed conviction that he maintains an iron grip on the party following recent electoral victories, according to The Wall Street Journal. Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, told The Houston Chronicle that Trump likely saw internal polling showing Paxton pulling ahead with GOP primary voters and wanted to be on the winning side.
Paxton’s history with Trump includes golf outings and attendance at the 2021 “Stop The Steal” rally that preceded the January 6 insurrection. Paxton also filed a petition with the Supreme Court challenging the 2020 presidential election results in swing states on Trump’s behalf.
The race has already set spending records, and some Republicans worry that a Paxton nomination would force the party to spend hundreds of millions of dollars defending the seat in the fall. “Prolonged Republican infighting,” coupled with growing anti-Trump sentiment, has made the contest more competitive than predicted a year ago, The New Yorker reported.
Texas has long been a target for Democrats, and the party sees an opening with a strong nominee in James Talarico. Democrats are allowing themselves to hope again, cautiously, after years of predictions that statewide wins were just around the corner.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) publicly backed Trump’s choice, telling The New York Times that “You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure out the pathway for Paxton is there. What we’ve got to do is raise a lot more money now.”
If Paxton wins the nomination next week, the GOP will have to spend heavily to keep the seat, money that could have been used elsewhere. Should Cornyn lose, Trump may face a group of lame-duck senators more willing to buck his demands, The New York Times noted.
Many Texas conservatives believe Paxton can win the general election, though the broader implications for Senate control remain uncertain. The outcome will test whether Trump’s influence can overcome concerns about Paxton’s legal troubles and appeal to general-election voters.