In a sign of growing optimism among major investors, large-scale traders—often referred to as "whales"—have shown a strong bullish inclination toward Alcoa Corporation, the aluminum giant listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker AA. According to a recent analysis by financial news outlet Benzinga, these investors have placed significant bets on the company's stock through options trading, with the majority anticipating upward movement in its share price.
The Benzinga report, published on November 25, 2025, examined options activity for Alcoa and detected eight notable trades. Of these, 75% were opened with bullish expectations, while 25% leaned bearish. Specifically, the analysis highlighted two put options trades totaling $556,000 and six call options trades amounting to $185,695. These figures underscore the scale of investment, as puts typically bet on a decline in stock price, whereas calls wager on an increase.
Benzinga noted that the trades suggest major investors are targeting a price range for Alcoa shares between $37 and $45 over the recent three months. This projected territory reflects the strike prices involved in the options, indicating where these traders believe the stock could head. The report emphasized the importance of monitoring volume and open interest in these options, which provide insights into liquidity and overall investor interest.
To illustrate, Benzinga provided a snapshot of Alcoa's 30-day option volume and open interest, focusing on strikes from $37 to $45. This data revealed fluctuations in trading activity, with higher volumes in certain calls pointing to concentrated bullish sentiment. As the report stated, "Assessing the volume and open interest is a strategic step in options trading. These metrics shed light on the liquidity and investor interest in Alcoa's options at specified strike prices."
Alcoa, headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, has a storied history in the aluminum industry. Founded in 1888 as the Pittsburgh Reduction Company, it pioneered the Hall-Héroult smelting process, which revolutionized aluminum production by making it affordable for widespread use. The company went public in 1925 and has since grown into the world's largest bauxite miner and alumina refiner by production volume, as well as the eighth-largest aluminum producer globally.
Its operations span the entire aluminum supply chain, from bauxite mining and alumina refining to manufacturing primary aluminum. Profits for Alcoa are heavily influenced by commodity prices along this chain, making the company sensitive to global market dynamics. In a significant move, Alcoa spun off its automotive and aerospace metal parts segment in 2016 to concentrate on core activities like mining, smelting, and refining. More recently, in mid-2024, it acquired the remaining 40% stake in Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals (AWAC), resulting in predominantly wholly owned refining assets, similar to its smelting operations.
The recent options activity comes amid varying expert opinions on Alcoa's stock performance. Over the last 30 days, three professional analysts have weighed in, setting an average price target of $37.67. An analyst from HSBC maintained a Buy rating, with a target price of $41, expressing confidence in the company's prospects. In contrast, a JP Morgan analyst held a Neutral rating, targeting $35, suggesting a more cautious outlook.
Meanwhile, an analyst from BMO Capital persisted with a Market Perform rating, maintaining a target of $37. These differing views highlight the uncertainty in the aluminum market, influenced by factors such as global demand, supply chain disruptions, and commodity price volatility. Benzinga reported these analyst takes as part of its broader coverage, noting that they provide context for the unusual options activity.
Benzinga described the situation as follows: "Whales with a lot of money to spend have taken a noticeably bullish stance on Alcoa." The outlet further explained, "From the overall spotted trades, 2 are puts, for a total amount of $556,000 and 6, calls, for a total amount of $185,695." This breakdown illustrates the imbalance toward calls, which are generally seen as bullish indicators.
The detection of this "unusual options activity" is part of Benzinga's Edge service, which aims to spot potential market movers by tracking positions taken by big money investors. Such activity is often interpreted as a signal that informed traders—possibly institutional investors or hedge funds—anticipate positive developments for the stock. However, Benzinga cautioned that options trading involves higher risks and potential rewards, advising traders to educate themselves and monitor market movements closely.
In the broader context of the aluminum industry, Alcoa's position is pivotal. The metal is essential for sectors like construction, transportation, and packaging, with demand driven by economic growth and sustainability trends, such as electric vehicles and renewable energy infrastructure. Recent years have seen fluctuations in aluminum prices due to events like the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions affecting supply from major producers like Russia and China, and shifts toward greener production methods.
Alcoa's strategic acquisitions and focus on vertical integration position it to capitalize on these trends, but challenges remain. For instance, environmental regulations and energy costs in smelting operations could impact profitability. The company's recent buyout of the AWAC stake, completed in mid-2024, enhances control over its supply chain, potentially stabilizing operations amid volatile markets.
Looking ahead, the bullish options bets could influence market sentiment, especially if Alcoa's stock approaches the targeted $37 to $45 range. Investors will be watching upcoming earnings reports and commodity price trends for confirmation. Benzinga recommends staying informed through real-time alerts, emphasizing that astute traders adapt strategies based on multiple indicators.
The implications of this activity extend beyond Alcoa, potentially signaling broader confidence in industrial metals amid economic recovery efforts. If the bullish stance proves accurate, it could attract more retail investors, boosting trading volume. Conversely, if bearish factors prevail—such as a slowdown in global manufacturing—the puts could gain traction.
As the aluminum market evolves, Alcoa's role as a key player will continue to draw attention from analysts and traders alike. With mixed ratings from experts and significant options interest, the coming months may clarify whether the whales' optimism is well-founded.