APPLETON, Wis. — As Bitcoin surges past the $100,000 mark, fueled in large part by President Donald Trump's pro-crypto policies, industry watchers are already looking ahead to a potential reckoning in 2028 when his term ends and the supportive administration steps aside.
The cryptocurrency's meteoric rise has been closely tied to Trump's leadership, with polls indicating strong backing from investors for his digital asset agenda. According to a report from Benzinga, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) may face its biggest political stress test yet in 2028, as the pro-crypto environment fostered under Trump could give way to uncertainty and stricter oversight.
Trump's influence on the crypto market became evident following his 2024 election victory, which propelled Bitcoin above $100,000. The Benzinga analysis highlights how crypto's identity has become deeply connected to Trump's leadership, with 73% of U.S. crypto investors in 2025 polls expressing support for his policies. This political premium has driven confidence, but Trump's inability to remain in office beyond 2028 means the industry could lose its key regulatory champion.
Institutional investors, who have ramped up exposure expecting continued regulatory clarity, might pull back once Trump exits. The report notes that entities like BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) and Fidelity saw their Bitcoin ETFs attract over $2 billion in inflows after Trump's 2024 win. However, when legal uncertainty emerged in late 2025, those same ETFs experienced outflows exceeding $180 million in a single day.
Similarly, MicroStrategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR), recognized as the largest public holder of Bitcoin, has seen its stock performance mirror these regulatory shifts. The company's shares typically rally on positive crypto policy news but weaken amid rising regulatory risks, according to the Benzinga article.
Retail investors, on the other hand, could respond more emotionally to Trump's departure. The analysis suggests that his exit might trigger panic selling and short-term volatility as investor confidence wanes. Yet, some retail participants might view it differently, seeing Trump's absence as a testament to Bitcoin's independence from political figures, emphasizing its role in true financial freedom.
Under Trump's administration, federal agencies have adopted a more cooperative stance toward digital assets, easing compliance and opening dialogues with exchanges. Without his influence, the policy direction could swing back toward enforcement, the report warns. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) might revert to stricter interpretations of securities laws, potentially labeling more tokens as unregistered assets and resuming litigation against major platforms.
Stablecoin regulations, shaped by initiatives like the GENIUS Act, could be overhauled to mandate banking supervision for issuers. Additionally, Trump's block on a central bank digital currency (CBDC) might be lifted, sparking renewed debates over a digital dollar. In the banking sector, regulators could discourage lenders from providing crypto custody services or engaging with exchanges.
A new administration might appoint an SEC chair reminiscent of Gary Gensler, known for his tough stance, restoring the pre-2024 regulatory climate. Such changes would likely dampen institutional participation and slow the growth of U.S.-based token projects, as detailed in the Benzinga piece.
Legislative efforts have also benefited from Trump's push, including the passage of the first federal stablecoin law. His absence could stall pro-crypto bills while elevating oversight-focused proposals. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), a vocal crypto skeptic, and others might regain prominence in shaping policy.
However, the report points out that some Democrats, recognizing crypto's appeal among young and minority voters, may soften their positions to avoid alienating this growing demographic. This shift could mitigate some of the potential backlash against the industry post-2028.
Bitcoin's price history underscores its sensitivity to political events. It soared above $100,000 after Trump's 2024 victory but dipped around 2% in 2025 amid uncertainties related to his trade policies. The Benzinga analysis predicts a similar pattern in 2028: a short-term sell-off followed by market consolidation as investors evaluate new regulations and broader economic conditions.
Over the longer term, Bitcoin's resilience is expected to shine through, driven by factors like halving cycles, global liquidity, and ongoing institutional adoption. Even without Trump's hype, the cryptocurrency's decentralized nature provides a foundation independent of politics, according to the report.
'Even without Trump, Bitcoin's foundation remains independent of politics. His policies accelerated adoption, but the technology's core strength lies in decentralization,' the Benzinga article states, suggesting a transition to greater maturity for the sector.
As the crypto market prepares for this potential shift, experts anticipate a period of adjustment where fundamentals take precedence over political headlines. The post-Trump era could usher in less volatility tied to elections and more focus on technological advancements, positioning Bitcoin for sustained growth despite the challenges ahead.