As the holiday season winds down with many colleges still on break through Friday, movie theaters across North America are gearing up for a weekend dominated by returning blockbuster Avatar: Fire and Ash. The James Cameron-directed sequel, now in its fourth weekend, is projected to maintain its top spot at the box office with an estimated $20 million or more, according to industry tracker Deadline. Despite competition from two new releases targeting older male audiences, the film continues to draw crowds with its premium formats, including IMAX, full 3D, and enhanced experiences like 4D, Screen-X, and D-Box auditoriums.
Avatar: Fire and Ash, the third installment in the franchise, has already surpassed $1 billion globally since its release. In North America alone, it has accumulated a running total of $311.8 million. Deadline reports that the film's holdover performance remains strong, buoyed by the extended holiday period where 76% of colleges are on break, keeping family and young adult viewers engaged. "Holiday moviegoing is still happening," notes the preview analysis, highlighting how the majors are programming toward demographics like older men with the incoming titles.
Challenging the blue-hued Na'vi world is Greenland 2: Migration, a Lionsgate-STX-Anton co-production starring Gerard Butler. The sci-fi sequel picks up with the surviving Garrity family leaving the safety of a Greenland bunker to traverse a frozen, decimated Europe in search of a new home. Directed by Ric Roman Waugh, the PG-13 film is opening in 2,700 theaters, with previews beginning at 2 p.m. Thursday. Projections place its debut between $8 million and $10 million domestically.
Butler, known for his action-hero roles, brings a dedicated older-male fan base to the project. Deadline points out that a year ago, his Lionsgate sequel Den of Thieves: Pantera opened to a solid $15 million, just $200,000 short of the pre-COVID original from 2018. The first Greenland film, released in late-summer 2020 amid theater lockdowns, managed $53.2 million abroad and secured a lucrative $25 million deal for pay TV and streaming rights with HBO Max—a benchmark that's hard for indie films to match today. Currently, the original is ranking high on HBO Max's streaming menu, potentially boosting interest in the sequel.
However, early tracking for Greenland 2 shows it pacing behind Den of Thieves 2 among its core demographic of men over 25. The film's budget is reported at $12 million, with an additional $20 million allocated for stateside print and advertising, according to Deadline. Lionsgate holds only domestic rights to the project. No Rotten Tomatoes scores are available yet for critics or audiences, leaving its reception untested as it heads into theaters.
Skepticism has emerged online regarding the reported budget. In comments on the Deadline article, readers questioned the figure, with one stating, "In what world is the Greenland 2 budget $12m," and another echoing, "thinking the same thing. Yeah that seems extremely fishy." While these are unverified user opinions, they highlight potential discrepancies in production costs for a sequel involving extensive visual effects and international filming in Europe.
Joining the fray is Primate, the debut theatrical release from Walter Hamada's genre label 18Hz at Paramount. Directed and co-written by Johannes Roberts, the horror film follows a group of friends on a tropical vacation that turns nightmarish when their pet chimp goes berserk. Buzz from its September screening at Fantastic Fest has propelled it to a 90% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes from critics. Opening in 2,900 locations, with previews starting at 7 p.m. Thursday, it's also eyeing $8 million to $10 million for the weekend.
The film's core audience skews toward men over 25, though early interest lags behind last year's Neon horror hit The Monkey, which opened to $14 million and featured a similar animal-themed terror. Internationally, Primate rolls out this week in 26 markets, including Mexico, with 34 more to follow: France on January 21, Australia on January 22, Germany, Italy, and Brazil on January 29, the United Kingdom on January 30, and Spain on February 6. Deadline describes how the film's Fantastic Fest reception "lit the wick," suggesting strong word-of-mouth potential in the genre space.
Beyond the top contenders, a handful of smaller releases are vying for attention. Bradley Cooper's directorial effort, the dramedy Is This Thing On?, expands wide to 1,200 theaters. Starring Will Arnett as a divorcing man who turns to stand-up comedy for solace, alongside Laura Dern and Cooper himself, the film boasts an 86% critics score and 88% audience fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes. After earning $1 million in 18 days from just 33 theaters, expectations for this weekend are in the single digits.
Angel Studios' Arabic drama I Was a Stranger, featuring Omar Sy and Jay Abdo, opens in 1,400 sites. The story explores themes of displacement and humanity, fitting into the studio's slate of faith-inspired and international fare. Meanwhile, in limited release, Gus Van Sant's thriller Dead Man’s Wire debuts from Row K in 14 theaters across major cities: New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Boston, Dallas, Washington D.C., Seattle, and Austin.
At 97% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, Dead Man’s Wire stars Bill Skarsgård, Dacre Montgomery, Cary Elwes, Myha’la, Colman Domingo, and Al Pacino. Inspired by the 1977 hostage standoff that made aspiring entrepreneur Tony Kiritsis an eccentric outlaw folk hero, the film was acquired by Row K in the mid-seven-figure range. Its selective rollout aims to build critical acclaim before a potential wider expansion.
The weekend's box office landscape reflects a post-holiday shift, with studios targeting niche audiences amid the lingering appeal of tentpole franchises. Avatar: Fire and Ash's dominance underscores the enduring draw of Cameron's world-building, even as it faces genre-specific challengers like disaster sequels and creature features. Greenland 2's international roots and Primate's horror credentials could carve out solid niches, particularly overseas where the first Greenland succeeded despite domestic pandemic hurdles.
Looking ahead, the success of these releases could influence studio strategies for early 2026. For instance, Primate's global rollout schedule positions it for sustained momentum, while Greenland 2's modest reported costs—if accurate—might signal a profitable model for mid-budget action fare. Comments questioning the budget aside, Lionsgate's focus on Butler's draw suggests confidence in recouping investments quickly.
In broader context, the box office continues to recover from pandemic-era disruptions. Films like the original Greenland, which thrived abroad and in streaming, exemplify how hybrid releases have reshaped distribution. As theaters prioritize premium experiences for holdovers like Avatar, new entries must compete not just on screens but in a crowded streaming ecosystem where HBO Max's top rankings can preview theatrical potential.
With no major awards contenders bowing this frame, the weekend serves as a bridge to January's typically quieter period, punctuated by international expansions and limited arthouse fare. Officials at studios like Paramount and Lionsgate have not commented further on projections, but early tracking indicates a competitive yet predictable top tier. Audiences, from holiday holdouts to genre enthusiasts, will ultimately decide if the Na'vi reign supreme or if Butler's wasteland trek and a rampaging chimp can shake up the charts.