APPLETON, Wis. — As climate patterns shift toward a developing El Niño this year, meteorologists are forecasting a busier hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific Ocean while anticipating a potentially quieter one in the Atlantic basin for 2026. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially kicks off on Friday, May 15, with warmer ocean temperatures expected to fuel more tropical storm development in the region, according to reports from the National Hurricane Center and climate experts.
The transition to El Niño, characterized by rising sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, creates ideal conditions for hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific. Warm waters serve as the primary fuel for tropical cyclones, and the pattern is projected to reduce vertical wind shear — the change in wind speed and direction at different atmospheric levels — allowing storms to organize and intensify without being disrupted. "An El Niño climate pattern allows for tropical systems that develop in the region to avoid getting 'blown over' and falling apart," CBS News reported, highlighting how the environment over the warmer Pacific waters enables storms to maintain their vertical structure.
In contrast, the same El Niño influences are likely to suppress activity in the Atlantic. The pattern tends to cool sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic basin and increase vertical wind shear, making it harder for tropical systems to form and strengthen. This does not guarantee a storm-free season, but statistics suggest fewer hurricanes than the historical average. The last El Niño episode in 2023 correlated with subdued Atlantic activity, following years of La Niña patterns that contributed to above-average seasons in recent times.
Looking back, the 2023 Eastern Pacific season under El Niño produced 20 tropical systems, with 17 of them developing into named storms. One standout was Hurricane Hilary, which barreled through Baja California as a hurricane before weakening to a tropical storm upon making landfall. The storm continued inland, affecting parts of the southwestern United States, including California, Arizona, and Nevada. Hilary was linked to three deaths and more than $900 million in damages across the U.S. and Mexico, underscoring the potential reach of Pacific hurricanes even when they don't strike as major systems.
By comparison, last year's 2025 Eastern Pacific season, which unfolded under a La Niña pattern, saw 18 tropical systems form. The most notable was Hurricane Kiko, a major storm that headed toward the Hawaiian Islands. It ultimately weakened in cooler waters and dissipated just north of the archipelago, sparing the islands direct impacts but serving as a reminder of the Pacific's volatility. These historical examples illustrate how El Niño and La Niña phases can dramatically alter seasonal outcomes in the same basin.
For the 2026 season, the rotating list of names for Eastern Pacific storms begins with Amanda, followed by Boris, Cristina, and Douglas. The lists cycle every six years, ensuring a standardized approach to tracking and communicating about these weather events. The National Hurricane Center in Miami will provide round-the-clock monitoring, issuing Tropical Weather Outlooks multiple times daily through the season's end on November 30.
El Niño's broader effects extend beyond hurricanes, influencing global weather patterns. The phenomenon, part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, typically brings wetter conditions to the southern U.S. and drier weather to the northern regions, while also affecting rainfall in South America and Asia. In the context of hurricanes, the shift from the recent La Niña dominance — which has fueled robust Atlantic seasons since 2023 — marks a significant change. During La Niña, stronger trade winds cool Pacific waters and enhance Atlantic storm formation, leading to the active years observed lately.
Experts emphasize that while El Niño favors the Pacific, individual storm tracks remain unpredictable. "This does not necessarily mean that we won't see any Atlantic hurricane systems — just statistically, there may be less than average," according to analyses from CBS News. Coastal communities in both basins are urged to prepare regardless, as even a single storm can cause widespread disruption. In the Eastern Pacific, nations like Mexico and Central American countries, along with U.S. West Coast states, face heightened risks from landfalling systems.
The 2023 Hilary event provides a stark example of these risks. Originating off the Mexican coast, the Category 4 hurricane at its peak dumped heavy rains far inland, triggering flash floods and mudslides in Baja California. As it crossed into the U.S., Hilary brought rare tropical moisture to the desert Southwest, leading to record rainfall in places like Cathedral City, California, where over seven inches fell in a day. The storm's toll included fatalities from vehicle accidents on flooded roads and extensive infrastructure damage, with insurers estimating costs exceeding $900 million.
Similarly, Hurricane Kiko in 2025 demonstrated the Pacific's potential to threaten distant islands. Forming rapidly in late August, the storm reached Category 4 strength with winds over 130 mph before encountering unfavorable conditions north of Hawaii. Although it fizzled out without striking land, swells from Kiko generated hazardous surf along Hawaiian beaches, prompting warnings from local authorities. The event highlighted the importance of satellite monitoring and early forecasting in mitigating distant threats.
As the 2026 season approaches, the National Hurricane Center's role becomes crucial. Based in Florida, the agency coordinates with international partners to track systems from their genesis in the tropics. Updates will include probabilistic forecasts for development, helping emergency managers in affected regions. For the Atlantic, while El Niño may dampen overall activity, warmer overall global temperatures due to climate change could still introduce uncertainties, potentially leading to intense individual storms.
Residents along the Gulf Coast and eastern seaboard, accustomed to frequent threats during La Niña years, may experience some relief this season. However, preparedness remains key; organizations like the American Red Cross stress the need for evacuation plans and supply kits. In the Pacific, Mexican officials are already ramping up alerts for coastal areas, drawing lessons from Hilary's path.
The interplay between El Niño and hurricane seasons underscores the interconnectedness of global climate dynamics. As patterns evolve, scientists continue to refine models to predict these shifts more accurately. For now, the forecast points to a tale of two oceans: one primed for action, the other holding its breath. With the season starting in just weeks, all eyes will be on the Pacific's warming waters and the Atlantic's steadier skies.
Beyond immediate threats, the return of El Niño raises questions about long-term trends. Since the strong 2015-2016 event, which influenced global weather extremes, these oscillations have grown more scrutinized amid rising concerns over climate change. Warmer baseline ocean temperatures could amplify El Niño's effects, potentially leading to even more variable hurricane seasons in the future.
In Appleton and across the Midwest, the indirect impacts of distant hurricanes — such as altered jet stream patterns affecting local weather — serve as a reminder of our shared atmospheric system. As Lisa Johnson reports for The Appleton Times, staying informed on these developments is essential for understanding how far-reaching weather events can be.