Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent European tour, which included stops in Italy, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden along with the India-Nordic Summit, has once again highlighted Western assumptions about India’s democratic standing. Joint statements routinely cite shared democratic values as the foundation for closer ties, even as questions persist about the direction of Indian politics under Modi’s Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party government that took power in 2014.
Chietigj Bajpaee, a senior research fellow for South Asia at Chatham House, argues in a new analysis that both the narrative of India as an illiberal democracy sliding toward autocracy and the portrayal of it as the world’s democratic “pole star” miss the mark. “India may be less liberal now, but it remains democratic,” Bajpaee writes. He points out that India’s democratic traditions stretch back before 1947 independence through indigenous systems such as panchayati raj village governance.
Recent state elections across Assam, Kerala, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and the union territory of Puducherry, covering more than 220 million people, showed high turnout, including over 90 percent in West Bengal. Voters ousted the long-ruling communist government in Kerala for the first time since 1977 and handed the BJP a victory in West Bengal after 15 years of Trinamool Congress rule. The BJP and its National Democratic Alliance allies now govern 22 of India’s 36 states and union territories.
Despite these gains, the economy faces headwinds. The Indian rupee ranks as Asia’s worst-performing currency amid rising oil import costs, with India relying on foreign supplies for nearly 90 percent of its crude. Modi has urged conservation of commodities after supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict. Yet the BJP continues to win support by emphasizing infrastructure projects, welfare schemes and the slogan of “double engine ki sarkaar,” promising faster growth where the party controls both state and national governments.
Bajpaee notes that the opposition has struggled to present a compelling alternative. “The opposition, in contrast, has been unable to offer a credible alternative beyond its anti-Modi and pro-secular narrative,” he observes. Meanwhile, Muslims make up 15 percent of the electorate but hold no seats in Modi’s cabinet and just 24 seats in the Lok Sabha, less than 5 percent of the lower house.
Concerns remain about institutional independence. The BJP’s influence over the judiciary and media has drawn criticism, though Bajpaee stresses that India is far from the 1975-77 Emergency period when Indira Gandhi suspended democratic rule. Checks and balances continue to operate, he says, even as the party consolidates power.
Modi’s personal appeal also plays a role. His image as an ascetic leader focused on national welfare contrasts with dynastic politics in many opposition parties. Supporters credit him with raising India’s global profile through assertive responses to security threats and high-profile summits, including the 2023 G-20 meeting and this year’s AI and BRICS gatherings.
India’s foreign policy approach further complicates Western assumptions. New Delhi has long preferred practical support for democratic practices, such as sharing electronic voting machines, over promoting democratic principles that might involve regime change. Close ties with Russia, Iran and Myanmar align more closely with Beijing’s pragmatic style than with Brussels, according to Bajpaee.
Looking ahead, Modi is expected to seek a fourth term in 2029. The BJP’s growing control of states could improve coordination on reforms involving labor and land. At the same time, newer Gen Z-inspired parties and a resurgent Congress within the opposition bloc could shift the landscape in upcoming state polls.
Bajpaee cautions that the future after Modi remains uncertain. Neither the BJP nor the opposition currently has a figure matching his combination of personal brand, development record and nationalist appeal. A return to coalition politics could slow decision-making but might also strengthen democratic norms through greater compromise.
Western policy toward India rests on democratic solidarity, anti-China alignment and economic partnership. Bajpaee concludes that a realistic assessment of Indian democracy, rather than rhetoric, will be essential for steady engagement. “Any truism about India can be immediately contradicted by another truism about India,” he quotes from Shashi Tharoor’s 1997 book, adding that the observation still holds for the country’s politics today.