BEIJING — As U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14 and 15, the ongoing war in Iran is poised to dominate discussions, potentially sidelining key economic issues like tariffs and rare earth mineral supplies that have strained bilateral relations.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has already indicated that Iran will be a central topic at the summit. The meetings come amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, where the conflict erupted in late February. China recently hosted Iran's foreign minister for the first time since the war's onset, a move that sparked optimism for a potential peace deal. That diplomatic gesture contributed to a dip in global oil prices and a rally in stock markets worldwide.
However, recent escalations have tempered those hopes. The U.S. and Iran exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz once again, with each side accusing the other of starting the confrontation. Just days prior, a Chinese-owned oil tanker was reportedly struck in the area, according to the Chinese media outlet Caixin. While CNBC could not independently verify the tanker incident, it underscores the risks to international shipping lanes that have rippled through global trade.
The summit's agenda shift toward Iran could limit progress on pressing business matters. U.S. officials declined China's offer to arrange industry-specific meetings between senior Chinese leaders and American CEOs, citing concerns that such sessions might make U.S. businesses appear overly aligned with Beijing. According to a U.S. executive with direct knowledge of the planning, the White House has not yet formally invited executives to join Trump, and a proposed list of about two dozen business leaders might be cut in half by the time of the trip.
Among those likely to accompany the president are the CEOs of Boeing and Citigroup, sources familiar with the matter confirmed. Boeing, the U.S. aircraft manufacturer, is anticipated to finalize its first major order from China in nearly a decade during the visit, a deal that could signal thawing in aerospace relations between the two nations.
This more restrained business presence contrasts sharply with Trump's previous international engagements. Last May, more than 30 U.S. executives joined him on a trip to Saudi Arabia. During his 2017 visit to China as president — the last by a sitting U.S. leader — nearly 30 CEOs traveled with him, culminating in 37 major agreements valued at over $250 billion.
Xi Jinping has been actively engaging world leaders this year, hosting a dozen national figures from countries including the United Kingdom and South Korea, often with sizable corporate delegations in tow. Despite the scaled-back U.S. group, some experts suggest that the optics of Trump and Xi together could encourage renewed Chinese engagement with American firms.
"Since U.S. military actions earlier this year, Chinese officials have been more hesitant to engage with the American business community," said Michael Hart, president of the Beijing-based American Chamber of Commerce in China. He added that the expected images from the summit "may still send a signal within China that it's more acceptable again to engage with U.S. businesses."
China's foreign ministry echoed a welcoming tone toward U.S. commerce. In a statement to reporters, it said Beijing "welcomes U.S. business expansion and hopes the companies can keep advancing bilateral economic relations." The commerce ministry did not respond to requests for comment on the summit preparations.
The Iran conflict's prominence at the table could provide a silver lining for global markets if it leads to de-escalation. "An end to the Iran war would be a 'great relief to global business,'" said Hai Zhao, a director of international political studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a state-affiliated think tank. He described such an outcome as something that "would be remembered as very much the success" of the Trump-Xi summit.
Even as geopolitical issues loom large, some economic frictions appear to be easing. Recent confrontations over U.S. sanctions and technology restrictions have cooled, with both sides exploring cooperation on emerging threats like artificial intelligence security, according to various reports. This shift comes after China became the first major economy to retaliate against tariffs imposed by the Trump administration in April 2025.
Progress on specific deals remains possible despite the distractions. Trump is expected to secure Chinese commitments to purchase more U.S. soybeans and Boeing airplanes, according to Scott Kennedy, a senior advisor and trustee chair in Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Kennedy also anticipates discussions on U.S. proposals to create dedicated "boards" for trade and investment to address bilateral challenges. "The meeting most likely will solidify the advantages China has gained over the past year," he said, pointing to Beijing's priorities of reducing tariffs, clarifying Taiwan's status, and easing U.S. restrictions on Chinese access to advanced technology.
Rare earth minerals, critical for everything from electric vehicles to defense systems, represent another flashpoint. China's tightening export controls on these resources have global repercussions, affecting supply chains far beyond the U.S. While the summit may not yield immediate breakthroughs here, any dialogue could alleviate pressures on industries worldwide.
The broader implications of the Trump-Xi meeting extend to the global economy's stability. With the Iran war disrupting energy markets and heightening geopolitical risks, a productive summit could stabilize investor confidence. Corporations, even with a smaller delegation, stand to benefit from reduced uncertainties, whether through direct deals or signals of normalized relations.
Looking ahead, the outcomes in Beijing will likely influence U.S.-China dynamics for months to come. If Iran takes precedence without derailing economic talks entirely, it could mark a pragmatic balancing act for Trump. Yet, as Kennedy noted, China may emerge with strengthened positions on core issues, underscoring the complex interplay of security and commerce in superpower relations.
For American businesses eyeing expansion in China, the visit represents a critical juncture. Hart's optimism about renewed engagement aligns with China's stated openness, but the hesitation born of recent military tensions lingers. As the summit unfolds, all eyes will be on whether Trump and Xi can navigate the Iran crisis while keeping the door ajar for trade advancements.