VANCOUVER, British Columbia — As the ongoing conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran escalates, residents in British Columbia are bracing for potential spikes in everyday expenses, particularly at the grocery store and gas pumps. On Monday, gas prices across the Lower Mainland hovered around $2.14 per litre, a level that has persisted from late last week and shows little sign of relief amid the international tensions.
The war, which has drawn in U.S. and Israeli forces against Iranian targets, is exerting pressure on global energy markets, according to experts monitoring the situation. This instability is not only keeping fuel costs elevated but could soon translate into higher prices for food items that British Columbians rely on daily. Sylvain Charlebois, a professor at the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University, warned that if oil prices stabilize around $100 per barrel — a scenario increasingly likely given the disruptions — families could face significant additional burdens.
"If oil remains at around say $100 a barrel, we’re likely going to see the average family of four spend anywhere between 400 and $600 more on food for the entire year because of the attacks in Iran," Charlebois said in an interview. His analysis points to the ripple effects of higher energy costs on transportation and production, which are foundational to the food supply chain.
Particularly vulnerable are perishable goods that require refrigerated transport, such as meat, dairy products, fresh produce, and seafood. These items, essential to diets across the province, depend heavily on fuel-intensive logistics to reach stores from farms, processing plants, and ports. In British Columbia, where much of the produce is imported and seafood harvesting is a key industry, any uptick in diesel and gasoline prices could amplify these costs quickly.
The Lower Mainland, home to major urban centers like Vancouver and Surrey, has already seen gas prices fluctuate in response to the conflict. Reports from local stations indicated prices dipping slightly to around $2.10 per litre on Sunday before climbing back up, reflecting the volatility tied to Middle East developments. Officials at the British Columbia Ministry of Energy, Mines and Low Carbon Innovation have not issued specific forecasts but noted in a statement that global events continue to influence domestic fuel markets.
Charlebois emphasized that the impacts might not stop at immediate energy-driven increases. He highlighted a potential "double whammy" later in the year, combining sustained high energy costs with disruptions in agricultural inputs like fertilizers, whose production is energy-intensive and tied to global commodity markets.
"Right now you may be looking at a double whammy, so on the one side you have energy costs pushing prices higher, but don’t forget with fertilizers with yields being impacted, markets could start to push commodity prices higher mid-year for example," Charlebois explained. "We could see input costs go up for manufacturers, so that would be that double whammy you would see later in the year."
This outlook aligns with broader economic concerns in Canada, where inflation has already been a persistent issue since the post-pandemic recovery. The Bank of Canada has raised interest rates multiple times in recent years to combat rising prices, but external shocks like the Iran conflict could complicate those efforts. In British Columbia, where household budgets are stretched by high housing costs, additional grocery expenses could hit low- and middle-income families hardest.
Small businesses, a backbone of the provincial economy, are also reporting strains from the elevated fuel prices. The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB), which represents thousands of owners in British Columbia, said many are currently absorbing the extra costs to avoid passing them on to customers. However, this strategy may not be sustainable.
Kalith Nanayakkara, the CFIB’s senior policy analyst for British Columbia, described the widespread effects on service-oriented enterprises. "Everything from your local pizzeria and the cost it takes for them to deliver that pizza to your home, your local plumber, electrician, every service call just went up in cost," Nanayakkara said.
With profit margins already thin — often hovering below 5% for many small operations — business owners may soon have no choice but to raise prices. Nanayakkara pointed to examples in the delivery and trades sectors, where fuel accounts for a significant portion of operational expenses. In rural areas of British Columbia, such as the Interior or Vancouver Island, where distances between jobsites are greater, the impact could be even more pronounced.
The CFIB has called on both the British Columbia and federal governments to accelerate the development of domestic energy resources as a buffer against international volatility. "To support the economy, the CFIB wants the B.C. and Canadian governments to move more quickly to develop Canada’s domestic energy supply," the organization stated in a recent policy brief. This push comes amid debates over pipeline expansions and renewable energy transitions, with proponents arguing that increased domestic production could stabilize prices without relying on geopolitically risky imports.
Consumer advocacy groups have echoed some of these concerns but urged a balanced approach. The Consumers' Association of Canada, in a statement released last week, acknowledged the potential for higher costs but stressed the importance of government interventions like subsidies or price caps on essentials. They cited historical precedents, such as the 1970s oil crises, when similar conflicts led to prolonged inflation in Canada.
Looking ahead, the trajectory of the U.S.-Israel-Iran war remains uncertain, with recent reports of airstrikes on Iranian oil facilities adding to market jitters. Analysts from the International Energy Agency have projected that sustained disruptions could keep Brent crude above $90 per barrel through the summer, potentially exacerbating the situation by the end of April as Charlebois predicted. In British Columbia, where the economy blends resource extraction with urban consumption, these global events underscore the province's vulnerability to distant conflicts.
As families stock up on groceries and fill their tanks, the hope is for de-escalation to ease the pressure. For now, experts like Charlebois recommend budgeting for the increases and supporting local producers where possible to mitigate some effects. The CFIB, meanwhile, continues to lobby for policy changes that could provide relief to businesses caught in the crossfire of international tensions.
In the broader context of Canada's energy landscape, British Columbia's role as a net exporter of natural gas contrasts with its reliance on imported oil, creating a complex picture. While the province has invested in liquefied natural gas projects like LNG Canada, which began operations in 2023, much of the refined fuel still comes from U.S. refineries affected by the same global supply chains. This interplay means that while domestic production offers some insulation, the Iran conflict's reach extends far.
Residents in places like Kelowna and Victoria have shared anecdotes of adjusting habits, such as carpooling or opting for seasonal produce, to cope with the costs. One Vancouver shop owner, speaking on condition of anonymity, told local media that his delivery fuel bill rose 15% in the past month alone. Such stories illustrate the human element behind the numbers, as the war's economic fallout touches daily life across the province.
Ultimately, the full extent of these impacts will depend on how the conflict unfolds and how policymakers respond. With oil markets watching every development closely, British Columbians may need to prepare for a period of adjusted spending habits well into the year. As Charlebois noted, the combination of immediate and delayed effects could make this a challenging stretch for households and businesses alike.