VANCOUVER, British Columbia — Home sales in Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley showed a notable uptick in February, climbing significantly from the previous month, though industry experts warn that it's premature to declare a full market recovery. According to data from real estate analytics firm HouseSigma, there were 2,128 residential resale transactions across the Greater Vancouver Regional District in February, marking a 46 percent increase from January's figures. Despite the monthly gain, sales remained 8.5 percent lower than in February 2023.
The Greater Vancouver Realtors association, which covers a more focused area of Metro Vancouver and represents 14,500 agents, echoed this trend in its reporting. The group logged 1,638 home sales for the month, a 43 percent rise from January, but still 9.8 percent below last year's February numbers and 28.7 percent under the 10-year seasonal average. In the adjacent Fraser Valley, the local real estate board, serving 5,000 agents, recorded 843 sales — up 36 percent from January, yet down 8.4 percent year-over-year and 38 percent below its decade-long average.
Andrew Lis, chief economist and vice-president of data and analytics at Greater Vancouver Realtors, described the February increase as typical seasonal behavior. “It’s very normal for February to be higher than January. That pretty much always happens in the data,” Lis said in an interview. He noted that his forecasting model, which projects around 25,000 sales for the full year — similar to 2023 — is currently being slightly outperformed by actual early-year numbers. “We’re actually running a little bit ahead of where the model thought we were going to be,” Lis added, though he stressed the margin is slim.
Lis expressed cautious optimism about potential underlying demand. “It may be that there is actually a little bit more demand out there than the modelling was capturing. Models are models. There’s imperfection in them, but that’s one of the things that I’m watching pretty closely because if that picks up into the spring, that could mark a bit of a shift in the vibe, if you will, around the market,” he explained. This comes amid broader economic pressures in the region, including high interest rates that have kept many buyers sidelined since the Bank of Canada began its rate-hiking cycle in 2022.
On the ground, real estate agents are observing early signs of renewed activity. Mayur Arora, a Surrey-based agent, reported busier open houses and quicker sales for well-priced properties. “Open houses are definitely busier,” Arora said. He highlighted strong interest in detached houses with rental suites, which appeal to investors and families alike. “Well-priced homes are selling quickly and, in particular, detached houses with suites,” he noted, adding that “investors are on the sidelines, but there is definitely pent-up demand.”
Jeremy Bator, another Surrey agent with HouseSigma, shared a similar perspective based on recent client experiences. Last week, one of his clients received multiple offers on a property, signaling competitive bidding is returning in select segments. “Things are definitely picking up,” Bator said. He pointed to growing attention on townhomes and condo resales when priced realistically from the start, rather than sellers overestimating and later pulling listings.
Supporting this view, HouseSigma data shows a decline in condo listing terminations and expirations, which often indicate failed sales due to unrealistic pricing. Over the past 12 months, the average monthly figure hovered around 2,000 such cases, but it dropped to 1,340 in February. Bator interpreted this as evidence that sellers are adjusting expectations. “In addition to detached homes with suites, townhomes and condo resale properties are getting more attention when sellers appear to be pricing more realistically up front, rather than testing the waters and withdrawing later,” he explained.
The Vancouver housing market has long been one of Canada's most challenging, characterized by high prices, limited supply, and intense demand driven by population growth and international migration. Metro Vancouver, encompassing cities like Vancouver, Surrey, and Burnaby, spans about 1.3 million residents, while the Fraser Valley to the east includes communities such as Langley and Chilliwack. Last year, sales totaled around 25,000 in the Greater Vancouver area, down from peaks in the pre-pandemic era when figures often exceeded 40,000 annually.
February's upswing follows a sluggish January, which is typically the slowest month due to post-holiday slowdowns and winter weather. However, the year-over-year declines underscore ongoing hurdles. Elevated mortgage rates, currently around 5 percent for five-year fixed terms, continue to deter buyers, while sellers grapple with softening values — the benchmark price for a detached home in Metro Vancouver stood at about $2 million in early 2024, per Realtors data, compared to $2.1 million a year prior.
Experts like Lis emphasize that while the uptick is encouraging, it's not yet indicative of a broader rebound. The region's market has been in a buyer's phase since mid-2022, with inventory levels rising to over 10,000 active listings in Metro Vancouver alone — the highest in years. This abundance gives purchasers more leverage, but it also means sellers must compete on price and condition to close deals.
Arora's observations align with anecdotal reports from other agents across the Lower Mainland. Demand for properties with income potential, such as those with secondary suites, remains robust amid B.C.'s housing affordability crisis. The province's policies, including recent incentives for secondary suites and restrictions on short-term rentals, have bolstered this niche. Yet, as Bator noted, the key to momentum lies in realistic pricing strategies.
Looking ahead, the spring market — traditionally the busiest season from March to June — will be pivotal. If pent-up demand materializes as Lis suggests, sales could accelerate, potentially pushing annual totals above initial forecasts. Conversely, persistent high rates or economic uncertainty could prolong the slowdown. The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver's multiple listing service has already seen a 20 percent increase in new listings for February, setting the stage for more choices but also more competition among sellers.
Broader economic factors, including potential interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada later this year, could influence the trajectory. Economists anticipate one or two reductions by mid-2024 if inflation continues to ease toward the 2 percent target. For now, agents like Arora and Bator advise buyers to act on well-priced opportunities and sellers to consult market data before listing.
The February data offers a glimmer of hope in a market that has frustrated many since the pandemic boom faded. As Lis put it, any shift would be welcome, but the real test lies in sustained activity. Prospective buyers and sellers in Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley are watching closely, with some already dipping toes back into the fray. For those on the sidelines, the coming months could determine whether this is the start of something bigger or just a fleeting seasonal blip.
Joanne Lee-Young, the Vancouver Sun reporter who covered the initial data release, invited input from market participants. “Are you a prospective homebuyer who’s standing on the sidelines or someone who’s recently decided to take the leap into the housing market? We’d like to hear from you,” she wrote in her article.