NEW YORK — Luana Lopes Lara, the co-founder of Kalshi, has built a fortune by betting on probabilities, but her path to becoming the youngest self-made female billionaire involved overcoming skepticism, regulatory hurdles, and even a lawsuit against the U.S. government. In a recent interview, Lopes Lara reflected on the high-stakes risks she took to launch and grow Kalshi, a prediction markets platform that allows users to trade contracts on real-world events ranging from elections to weather patterns. Founded in 2018 alongside her MIT classmate Tarek Mansour, Kalshi has since exploded in popularity, processing up to $2 billion in transactions per week.
Lopes Lara, who holds an elite math degree from MIT and previously worked at top hedge funds, described her entrepreneurial journey as a calculated gamble rooted in her analytical mindset. "We solved hard math problems, [and] we're going to figure out this regulatory-government problem," she recalled thinking during the early days, as shared in an interview with CNBC's Julia Boorstin for the "CNBC Changemakers and Power Players" podcast. The duo's determination stemmed from late-night sessions at MIT, where they became passionate about the idea of prediction markets. "We were so in love with this problem and this idea," Lopes Lara said.
The concept behind Kalshi is straightforward: users buy "yes" or "no" contracts tied to specific outcomes, with contract prices reflecting the market's perceived probability of the event occurring. Topics span economics, politics, sports, pop culture, and weather, making it a versatile tool for hedging risks or speculating on future events. However, turning this idea into a regulated financial market proved far more challenging than anticipated. Launched in 2018, Kalshi spent years battling for approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the agency overseeing derivatives markets.
Regulatory approval finally came in 2020, but not without intense scrutiny and doubt from outsiders. "We talked to a lot of people at the time and they were like, 'that's impossible. The odds are lower than 1%. You're never going to make that happen,'" Lopes Lara recounted. Despite lacking startup experience, the founders persisted, armed with data analysis and legal research to counter regulators' concerns. Their naivety, Lopes Lara suggested, was an asset, fueling persistence through what she described as "many, many years of it looking like it was going nowhere."
One of the boldest moves came ahead of the 2024 presidential election, when Kalshi sought to offer contracts on election outcomes — a market Lopes Lara called the "holy grail." After more than two years of negotiations with the CFTC stalled, she decided to sue the government. "[One of] the biggest events every four years in the world is the American election," she emphasized. The decision was not unanimous; the company's board had repeatedly urged the founders to pivot to other opportunities. "For almost two years, at every board meeting, we would go in and tell the board, 'We're working on elections. We're working on elections. We're working on elections.' ... They would always say, 'It's not working. It's not working. It's not working,'" Lopes Lara said.
Leading the charge to litigate, Lopes Lara convinced the board despite internal resistance. "It makes no sense to not do this," she thought at the time, weighing the probabilities in Kalshi's favor. The month before the court ruling was grueling: "I didn't sleep. I didn't work out. I was just almost like a potato just walking around trying to handle everything," she admitted. Kalshi ultimately prevailed, setting a legal precedent that opened the door for election betting on the platform.
The victory propelled Kalshi's growth. In the week of the New York City mayoral election, the platform handled over $130 million in election-related transactions. More recently, during the Super Bowl, trading volume reached around $1 billion. Overall, Kalshi now processes $2 billion in transactions weekly, a stark contrast to its early struggles. The company's success attracted significant investment, including a recent $1 billion funding round that valued Kalshi at $11 billion.
Lopes Lara's recognition as part of the 2026 CNBC Changemakers list underscores her impact on the financial world. Yet, the platform's expansion has sparked controversies. Contracts tied to sensitive topics, such as recession risks from the U.S.-Iran war or potential U.S. military actions, have drawn backlash, including criticism from members of Congress. Concerns over insider trading have also surfaced, given how closely some events align with real-time news.
Additionally, Kalshi faces multiple legal disputes in various states, where the gaming industry argues that its contracts amount to unregulated gambling. Lobbying efforts by gaming companies aim to close what they view as a loophole in prediction markets regulation. According to reports, these battles highlight tensions between emerging financial innovations and traditional gambling laws. Kalshi maintains that its operations are distinct and legally sound, with Lopes Lara expressing strong confidence in the company's arguments.
Reflecting on her risk-taking philosophy, Lopes Lara advocates for a probabilistic approach to decision-making, one that mirrors Kalshi's core business. "The best way that I think about making decisions is: you make sure you have all the data that you can about the situation, and then you map out possible scenarios, and then you put probabilities into them," she explained. This method helped her evaluate the initial decision to found Kalshi, preparing for outcomes including potential failure.
She believes many, particularly women, shy away from bold ventures due to exaggerated fears of downside risks. "Most people, I see that they're afraid of taking risks ... they're so worried about the downside. They're so worried about what's going to happen if things go wrong. But most of the times people are overthinking it," Lopes Lara said. In her view, failure often means little more than a temporary setback, like missing a promotion or needing to find another job. "It's very easy to trick yourself into rationalizing the fear of taking risk," she added, urging honesty about personal motivations.
Lopes Lara's story illustrates the blend of intellectual rigor and audacity required to disrupt established markets. From MIT dorm rooms to federal courtrooms, her journey with Kalshi has not only created a new avenue for probability trading but also challenged norms around risk in entrepreneurship. As prediction markets gain traction, they offer insights into public sentiment on everything from politics to global conflicts, potentially influencing how investors and policymakers gauge uncertainties.
Looking ahead, Kalshi continues to innovate with contracts responding to breaking news, such as geopolitical tensions. While legal and ethical debates persist, the platform's valuation and volume suggest a maturing market. Lopes Lara's emphasis on calculated risks may inspire a new generation of founders, particularly in underrepresented groups, to pursue ambitious ideas despite the odds.
The broader implications extend to how society values probabilistic thinking in an era of rapid change. As Kalshi shapes events through its markets, questions remain about regulation, fairness, and the role of such platforms in democracy and finance. For now, Lopes Lara remains optimistic, guided by the data and determination that built her empire.