In the spirit of March Madness, ESPN has crafted a hypothetical 16-man tournament bracket for the heavyweight division of mixed martial arts, pitting top fighters against each other in a single-elimination format to crown a imaginary champion. The exercise comes amid real excitement in the division, with former UFC and PFL heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou set to return to MMA action on May 16 against Philipe Lins on an MVP MMA fight card, and former UFC middleweight and light heavyweight titleholder Alex Pereira moving up to heavyweight for a June 14 bout with Ciryl Gane for the interim UFC heavyweight belt at the White House.
ESPN's MMA divisional ranker Brett Okamoto seeded the field, drawing from the top heavyweights across promotions. Analysts Andreas Hale and Jeff Wagenheim joined Okamoto in breaking down each matchup, predicting outcomes based on fighters' skills, recent form, and stylistic edges. The bracket features a mix of established stars and rising talents, including UFC interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall as the top seed and Olympic gold medal wrestler Gable Steveson at No. 16.
The opening round kicked off with Aspinall facing Steveson. Okamoto predicted a knockout or technical knockout victory for Aspinall, noting, "Aspinall runs circles around Steveson at this point, utilizing his footwork, boxing and all-around world-class skill set. Steveson could be the future of heavyweight MMA, but Aspinall is the present." Despite praise from former UFC champion Jon Jones, who trains with Steveson and forecasted a UFC title for the 25-year-old by 2027, the analysts saw Aspinall's experience prevailing.
In the quarterfinals, Pereira drew Vadim Nemkov at seeds 8 versus 9, a matchup Wagenheim called the most competitive of the first round. While Wagenheim favored Nemkov, the majority picked Pereira to advance by KO or TKO. "Nemkov is well-rounded and would put Pereira in a world of trouble on the canvas," Wagenheim said. "But the Russian is not an overpowering heavyweight -- like Pereira, he's a former light heavyweight -- and does not present the kind of size difference that would make Pereira reconsider his life choices." Nemkov, unbeaten in 15 fights over a decade, faced a step up against the Brazilian striker.
Sergei Pavlovich, seeded fourth, was projected to dispatch Ante Delija in the second round by knockout, according to Hale. Pavlovich, who once notched six straight knockouts before a November 2023 loss to Aspinall, has losses only to high-level opponents like Alexander Volkov, Alistair Overeem, and Aspinall. Hale explained, "The powerful Russian still packs a punch, and Delija would almost certainly stand and trade with him, which gives Pavlovich the opening he needs to finish the fight with a one-punch knockout in Round 2."
Another first-round clash saw Waldo Cortes-Acosta upsetting Derrick Lewis by first-round KO or TKO, mirroring their real UFC 324 fight from less than three months ago. Okamoto highlighted Cortes-Acosta's savvy and durability against Lewis's power, stating, "More often than not, Cortes-Acosta is too savvy and too durable to fall victim to Lewis' one-punch power. This fight is a repeat of their first, and Cortes-Acosta moves on comfortably via an early stoppage." Lewis, a fan favorite, has faced stylistic challenges as he ages.
Volkov, the No. 2 seed, surprisingly fell to Valter Walker in the first round by submission, a pick Wagenheim likened to a March Madness upset. Walker, with just five UFC fights and wins by heel hook in his last four, exploited Volkov's experience gap. "Walker has won four fights in a row, all by heel hook, and a narrowly focused grappling specialist can be as dangerous as an Ivy League hoops team that runs backdoor cuts the No. 2-seed hasn't seen all season," Wagenheim wrote.
Curtis Blaydes advanced past Serghei Spivac by unanimous decision, with Hale predicting Blaydes's wrestling would neutralize Spivac's grappling. "Considering Blaydes' improved striking and impressive wrestling, Spivac gets completely neutralized for the duration of the fight," Hale said. The bout would likely stay grounded, with Blaydes controlling from top position for 15 minutes.
Gane, seeded third, outpointed Renan Ferreira by decision in a potential show-stealer. Okamoto foresaw Gane's footwork frustrating Ferreira's power, though Ferreira drops him once. "Gane and Ferreira are arguably the two top athletes in this pool, and they face off in this one fight," Okamoto noted. "Gane's technique presents a maddening puzzle for most heavyweights, but Ferreira is one of the few who possess the speed to catch him."
Ngannou powered through Rizvan Kuniev by second-round KO or TKO. Wagenheim acknowledged Kuniev's solid record -- one loss in 13 fights -- but emphasized Ngannou's aggression. "Kuniev has never been knocked out, but there's a first time for everything," he said, adding that Ngannou's potential rust from limited MMA activity since January 2022 wouldn't matter against the less-tested Kuniev.
Moving to the semifinals, Aspinall dominated Pereira by second-round TKO, according to Hale. "Between Aspinall's grappling and ability to close the distance quickly, this is a nightmare opponent for Pereira," Hale explained. "Poatan thrives in striking-only scenarios... Unfortunately, the two-division champion must stand across the cage from an incredibly athletic fighter with superb takedowns and grappling on the canvas."
Cortes-Acosta pulled off another upset against Pavlovich by split decision, riding momentum from three knockouts since their August 2025 meeting, which Pavlovich won. Okamoto cited volatility in heavyweight MMA: "Momentum, activity and timing can matter even more. We're taking the hot hand in Cortes-Acosta."
Blaydes edged Walker by split decision, using wrestling defensively to avoid submissions. Wagenheim said, "Blaydes is one of the strongest wrestlers in heavyweight MMA, so he certainly can take this fight to the canvas -- but that's right where Walker will want it. So Blaydes elects to use his wrestling skills defensively."
In a highly anticipated semifinal, Ngannou knocked out Gane in the second round, building on their 2022 encounter where a one-legged Ngannou won by decision. Hale predicted, "Ngannou knows he can outwrestle Gane and would look to bring the fight to the canvas again if he can't connect with a fight-ending punch early... Unlike their first meeting, this one doesn't go the distance, as Ngannou pounds his way to victory in Round 2."
The final four saw Aspinall knock out Cortes-Acosta in the first round, with Okamoto affirming Aspinall's superiority despite Cortes-Acosta's Cinderella run. "Aspinall is quicker, more technical and a better wrestler," Okamoto stated. Ngannou then stopped Blaydes in the first round, echoing their prior knockouts in 2016 and 2019.
In the championship, Aspinall claimed the tournament title over Ngannou by unanimous decision. Hale described a grueling fight where Aspinall avoided striking exchanges, relying on wrestling and grappling. "Aspinall deploys every tool in his toolbox to get the win over Ngannou," Hale wrote. "The victory doesn't come easy, as Ngannou has demonstrated improved takedown defense over the years... Aspinall goes the distance for the first time in his MMA career, wearing down Ngannou." Ngannou's inactivity since 2022 factored into the prediction.
This hypothetical bracket underscores the depth and unpredictability of heavyweight MMA, especially with real events like Ngannou's return and Pereira's heavyweight debut on the horizon. As the division evolves, such exercises highlight potential dream matchups that could shape the sport's future, from Aspinall's dominance to up-and-comers like Steveson and Walker challenging the status quo.