As the NHL trade deadline fades into the rearview mirror, the league's sprint toward the 2026 Stanley Cup playoffs is intensifying, with standings battles poised to influence the outcome of the major individual awards. In the latest NHL Awards Watch from ESPN, a poll of anonymous Professional Hockey Writers Association (PHWA) voters reveals tight races across several categories, particularly for the Hart Memorial Trophy, where Colorado Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon holds a slim lead over challengers like San Jose Sharks phenom Macklin Celebrini and Tampa Bay Lightning star Nikita Kucherov. With about a month remaining in the 2025-26 regular season, voters emphasized how team success could tip the scales, especially for Celebrini, whose performance has the rebuilding Sharks eyeing their first playoff berth since 2019.
MacKinnon, who won the Hart last season, has dominated the MVP conversation for four consecutive months, anchoring the Avalanche's league-leading points total since October. Through 61 games, he has amassed 104 points, including an NHL-best 43 goals, putting him 13 goals ahead of New York Islanders forward Brock Nelson and 28 points clear of teammate Martin Necas. Voters praised his all-around impact, with one noting, "Nathan MacKinnon remains the front-runner for me. Leads the league in even-strength points and has a plus-55 rating." Another added, "He's the clear MVP for me with 20 or so games remaining. I hope he doesn't get dinged for the fact that his organization outthinks and out-operates everybody else."
MacKinnon's pursuit of a second Hart comes amid a season where he's on pace to challenge career and franchise records. His personal best for goals is 51, while the Avalanche's mark stands at 55 by Mikko Rantanen in 2022-23. Factoring in the team's Quebec Nordiques heritage, MacKinnon could approach Michel Goulet's 57-goal record from 1982-83. He garnered 47% of the first-place votes in the poll, reflecting his consistent excellence on a perennial contender.
Challenging MacKinnon is Kucherov, who is seeking his second Hart after claiming it in 2018-19. The Lightning, leading the Atlantic Division despite a recent push from the Buffalo Sabres, owe much of their success to Kucherov's dominance. He ranks third league-wide with 103 points in 58 games, second in assists with 69, and boasts the highest points-per-game average at 1.78. Kucherov outpaces his closest Lightning teammate, Jake Guentzel, by 36 points. Tied with Edmonton Oilers captain Connor McDavid for third in first-place votes, Kucherov benefits from the spotlight on Tampa's steady playoff pedigree, though voters credit goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy as well.
McDavid, the 2022-23 Hart winner, has shouldered the Oilers through 64 games with a league-leading 108 points and 35 goals, ranking third behind MacKinnon and Montreal Canadiens forward Cole Caufield. Despite slipping outside the top three in recent polls after a second-place finish in January, McDavid continues to collect votes. His ability to elevate Edmonton remains a hallmark, as one voter highlighted the veteran's impact in a tight race dominated by established stars.
Yet the most compelling storyline belongs to Celebrini, the 19-year-old Sharks center who earned the second-most first-place votes. In 61 games, he has 89 points—fifth in the NHL—and leads San Jose by 45 points over Will Smith, with 32 goals to Smith's 19. Celebrini's output has drawn Sidney Crosby comparisons, especially if he secures MVP honors in his sophomore season, mirroring Crosby's 2006-07 feat. As a key performer for Team Canada at the 2026 Olympics, Celebrini is attempting to haul the Sharks from rebuild to relevance. Entering the latest poll, San Jose held a 36.5% chance of Western Conference playoff qualification, per Money Puck analytics.
Voters see Celebrini's value magnified by the Sharks' struggles. "You could fit an eyelash between each of them in this race. Still giving the 'No. 1-A' nod to MacKinnon because he hasn't declined in any fashion," one said, while acknowledging Celebrini and Kucherov's outstanding play. Another reasoned, "MacKinnon has been incredible, as usual. With Celebrini and Kucherov, my thought process is, 'How different would their team be if their top player were out?' The Sharks wouldn't be sniffing the playoffs without Celebrini. Kucherov has over 30 more points than his closest teammate."
The playoff threshold looms large for Celebrini's candidacy. "It's Celebrini if the Sharks somehow rally," said one voter who favored Kucherov. A MacKinnon supporter concurred conditionally: "If the Sharks get in, I'd consider Celebrini." Highlighting the Pacific Division's parity, another noted, "If the Sharks squeak into the postseason—a reasonable notion given the wan state of this season's Pacific Division—it will be because of the sophomore who has more than twice as many points as anyone else on his squad." Not all agree on playoffs as a prerequisite, however. "I don't buy the notion that you have to make the playoffs to win this award," one voter argued. "If your team narrowly misses but would be a lottery team without you—like San Jose—you provide more value than a team who would still be good without a singular player."
Down the ballot, New York Islanders rookie defenseman Matthew Schaefer earned his first Hart vote, ranking second on his team with 46 points. "It's time for Matthew Schaefer to get Hart buzz. There's no player in the NHL more 'valuable' to his team," the voter said. Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Zach Werenski also drew support, underscoring the depth in this year's MVP discussion.
Shifting to the Norris Memorial Trophy for top defenseman, the race is a dead heat between Colorado's Cale Makar and Columbus's Zach Werenski, each with 41% of first-place votes. Makar, the reigning winner, has 66 points in 61 games, a plus-33 rating, and averages 25:03 of ice time. His underlying metrics shine, with the Avalanche posting a 67% goals-for share at five-on-five when he's on the ice, averaging 3.77 goals for and 1.86 against per 60 minutes. "My ballot is on its way to being a repeat of last year," one voter said. Another affirmed, "It's Makar up top, no question. After that, I could argue for probably close to seven or eight guys."
Werenski has closed the gap on Makar, who held 55% of votes last month, over three straight polls. In 55 games, Werenski leads the Blue Jackets with 65 points, including 20 goals, and ranks second league-wide in ice time at 26:27, playing all situations. His numbers excel relative to Columbus teammates amid their playoff push, bolstered by his Olympic gold with Team USA. "Makar's play has dropped of late. Werenski is going to find himself in the Hart conversation if Columbus makes the playoffs," one voter observed. "He's been incredible, all year." Another added, "He's doing more with less around him versus Makar."
Despite the surge, some voters view Makar as untouchable. "Zach Werenski might've picked the wrong era to win one of these," one remarked, nodding to Makar's generational status. Minnesota Wild defenseman Quinn Hughes placed third, leading the NHL with 27:44 average ice time and 63 points in 58 games, including 36 with the Wild after a trade from Vancouver. "Cale Makar would still sit in the No. 1 spot for me, but it's a narrow gap between him, Quinn Hughes and Moritz Seider filling out my top three," a Makar backer said. Detroit's Seider snagged one first-place vote, while Edmonton Oilers' Evan Bouchard, with a defenseman-leading 72 points, lurks as a dark horse. "Evan Bouchard can also still get into the mix with 25% of the season remaining," one voter suggested, though concerns persist about his defensive play.
For the Calder Memorial Trophy honoring the top rookie, New York Islanders defenseman Matthew Schaefer is the unanimous leader, sweeping every first-place vote for the second straight month. At 18 years old, after just 17 OHL games last season with the Erie Otters, Schaefer has 46 points in 64 games, a plus-12 rating, and leads rookies in average ice time (24:16), power-play goals (seven), and power-play points (15). He's 23 points ahead of Carolina Hurricanes rookie Alexander Nikishin and second on the Islanders in scoring. "Engrave the plaque. Write the release," one voter declared. Another quipped, "He has 20 goals from the back and logs over 24 minutes a night, and has singlehandedly made the Islanders watchable."
"Schaefer is past the Calder conversation and is now in the Norris conversation," a voter beamed, recalling preseason doubts about his roster spot. Anaheim Ducks forward Beckett Sennecke and Montreal Canadiens forward Ivan Demidov are strong runners-up. Sennecke leads rookies with 51 points and ties Schaefer with 20 goals, fueling Anaheim's standings climb. "Sennecke is going to finish with 25 goals and almost 40 assists in his first NHL season and it won't matter a lick in light of how Schaefer has dragged his club into legit playoff contention as an 18-year-old defender," one detailed. Demidov, the preseason favorite, has 48 points in 62 games, including 13 goals and 14 power-play points. "Schaefer is going to win this and should win this, perhaps unanimously. I'd have Beckett Sennecke in the No. 2 followed by Ivan Demidov," another voter revealed. Others like Pittsburgh's Ben Kindel and Washington's Ryan Leonard received mentions.
The Vezina Trophy race, voted on by general managers, sees Tampa Bay's Andrei Vasilevskiy out front with 53% of first-place votes. With a 29-10-3 record in 42 games and fifth in goals saved above expected (17.8 per Money Puck), Vasilevskiy has been pivotal for the Lightning. "Tampa probably shouldn't be as good as they are," one voter proposed. "Vasilevskiy is like human duct tape. Somehow, he just gets the job done." Another praised, "Andrei Vasilevskiy has looked back to Vezina form all season. He also gets bonus points for the goalie fight that helped get his team going," referencing his February 1 scrap with Boston's Jeremy Swayman during a 6-5 Stadium Series win. New York Islanders' Ilya Sorokin trails closely, leading the league in goals saved above expected (28 per Money Puck). Washington's Logan Thompson rounds out the finalists.
As the season winds down, these races could shift with playoff outcomes and late surges. For Celebrini and the Sharks, a postseason push might vault him to the Hart forefront, while veterans like MacKinnon and Kucherov rely on sustained excellence. Defensemen battles in Norris and Calder highlight emerging talents amid established stars, setting the stage for a compelling awards night. Voters' perspectives underscore the subjective nature of value in a league where individual brilliance often intersects with team fortunes.