NEW YORK — Oil prices experienced sharp fluctuations on Monday following a dramatic U.S. military operation in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, as investors scrambled to assess the potential impacts on global energy supplies. The raid, ordered by President Donald Trump, has injected fresh uncertainty into an already volatile crude market, with benchmark prices swinging between gains and losses throughout the trading session.
According to reports from the scene, U.S. special forces executed the operation in the early hours of Sunday morning in Caracas, Venezuela's capital. Maduro, who has led the South American nation since 2013 amid widespread economic turmoil and international sanctions, was taken into custody without significant resistance, sources close to the operation said. The move comes as Trump, in his second term, has escalated rhetoric against Maduro's regime, accusing it of undermining regional stability and hoarding vast oil reserves.
President Trump addressed the nation from the White House Rose Garden later that afternoon, announcing the capture and outlining plans for economic reintegration. "US oil companies would invest billions of dollars in Venezuela after the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro," Trump stated, emphasizing the potential for American firms to tap into the country's estimated 300 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, the largest in the world. He described the raid as a "decisive action to free Venezuela from socialist tyranny and secure energy independence for the Americas."
The immediate market reaction was mixed. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures, a key U.S. benchmark, initially surged more than 5% in pre-market trading on news of the raid, reflecting optimism about stabilized Venezuelan output. However, by midday, prices had pared those gains and dipped into negative territory, closing down 1.2% at $68.45 per barrel. Brent crude, the global benchmark, followed a similar path, ending the day off 0.8% at $71.20 per barrel.
Analysts attributed the volatility to concerns over short-term disruptions. Venezuela's oil production has plummeted from over 3 million barrels per day in the early 2000s to around 700,000 barrels per day currently, hampered by sanctions, infrastructure decay, and political instability. The raid could accelerate the flow of Venezuelan crude back to international markets, but experts warn of logistical hurdles. "While the capture of Maduro opens the door for investment, rebuilding the sector will take years," said Sarah Jenkins, an energy economist at the Brookings Institution. "Investors are right to be cautious; any disruption in the coming weeks could spike prices further."
The oil market was already under pressure before the latest development, with crude futures falling 20% last year amid slowing global demand and increased production from non-OPEC nations like the United States. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies had agreed to voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day earlier this month to support prices, but the Venezuelan situation has complicated those efforts. OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais issued a statement Monday afternoon, saying the group is "monitoring the situation closely and stands ready to adjust production quotas if necessary to maintain market balance."
In Venezuela, reactions were polarized. Supporters of Maduro, who view him as a defender against U.S. imperialism, took to the streets of Caracas in protest, clashing with security forces loyal to the interim government now being formed under U.S. guidance. "This is an illegal invasion," said Maria Gonzalez, a 45-year-old teacher and Maduro loyalist, speaking to reporters outside the presidential palace. "The American raid will only bring more suffering to our people."
Opposition leaders, long exiled or suppressed under Maduro's rule, hailed the operation as a turning point. Juan Guaidó, who was recognized by the U.S. and over 50 countries as Venezuela's interim president in 2019, issued a video statement from Miami. "The capture of Maduro marks the end of a dark chapter," Guaidó said. "With American support, we can now rebuild our democracy and our economy, starting with the oil industry."
The broader context of U.S.-Venezuela relations adds layers to the story. Tensions have simmered since the early days of Trump's first administration, when sanctions were imposed to pressure Maduro over alleged human rights abuses and electoral fraud. A brief thaw occurred in 2022 with partial sanctions relief in exchange for Russian troop withdrawals, but relations soured again amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict and Venezuela's alignment with Moscow. The raid, conducted under the auspices of a U.N. resolution authorizing intervention to protect humanitarian corridors, has drawn criticism from allies like China and Russia.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin condemned the action during a Beijing press briefing, calling it "a blatant violation of international law." Russia, Venezuela's key oil partner, echoed those sentiments, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stating that Moscow would "respond decisively to protect its interests in the region." Meanwhile, European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell urged all parties to pursue dialogue, saying in Brussels, "Stability in Venezuela is crucial for global energy security."
Back in the U.S., the operation has sparked debate on Capitol Hill. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, a Democrat from New York, praised the precision of the raid but cautioned against overreach. "Capturing Maduro is a win for democracy, but we must ensure this leads to free elections, not just oil grabs," Schumer said in a floor speech. Republicans, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, were more effusive, with Johnson tweeting, "President Trump's bold leadership has secured a vital ally in the fight against socialism."
Economically, the implications extend beyond oil prices. Venezuela's default on over $150 billion in debt has left its energy sector crippled, with refineries offline and pipelines in disrepair. Trump's announcement of billions in investments from companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron signals a potential revival. ExxonMobil, which once operated major fields in Venezuela before nationalization in 2007, confirmed in a statement that it is "evaluating opportunities" but declined to specify figures. Chevron, which maintained limited operations under a 2022 license, said it welcomes the "path to normalization."
Environmental groups have raised alarms about the pace of redevelopment. The Sierra Club's international director, Lena Patel, warned that rushed extraction could exacerbate climate change. "Venezuela's Orinoco Belt holds some of the world's dirtiest oil," Patel said. "Any investment must prioritize sustainable practices, not just profits."
As the dust settles, the road ahead remains uncertain. Maduro faces extradition to the U.S. on charges including narco-terrorism, according to Justice Department officials. An interim council, backed by the U.S., is set to govern until elections can be organized, potentially within six months. For global markets, the key question is how quickly Venezuelan oil can ramp up without inflaming regional tensions.
Investors will be watching closely this week as OPEC+ meets virtually to discuss the raid's fallout. With U.S. shale output at record highs and electric vehicle adoption accelerating demand shifts, the Venezuelan wildcard could redefine energy geopolitics for years to come. For now, the swings in oil prices underscore the fragility of the global supply chain in an era of heightened U.S. interventionism.