In a stark warning amid ongoing global health challenges, experts are sounding the alarm that another pandemic as devastating as Covid-19 could strike within our lifetimes, but they argue that with targeted investments and international cooperation, such threats can be prevented. According to a recent analysis published by Vox, humanity faces a nearly 50 percent chance of encountering a pandemic on the scale of Covid-19 by 2050, which claimed an estimated 25 million lives worldwide. The piece, titled 'Pandemics are a choice,' emphasizes that scientific advances now allow us to detect, treat, and halt pathogens before they escalate, yet political and financial hurdles stand in the way.
The analysis draws on data from the World Bank and The Lancet, highlighting the increasing risks of new threats emerging due to factors like human encroachment on wildlife habitats, the proliferation of high-risk biological labs, and the growing accessibility of biological weapons. 'On our current trajectory, we will likely be faced with another pandemic in our lifetimes,' the Vox article states, underscoring that both the 'spark risk' of a new pathogen appearing and the 'spread risk' of it ballooning into a global crisis are rising annually. It points out that nobody wants a repeat of the Covid-19 chaos, but 'biology doesn’t care.'
Despite a U.S. retreat from global health leadership under recent administrations, there are signs of progress elsewhere. The Trump administration's America First Global Health Strategy, released in September, prioritizes the detection and containment of biological threats. In June, the United Kingdom announced a billion-pound investment in a new biosecurity center aimed at safeguarding the public and economy from future pandemics. Meanwhile, the African Union has established a new African Epidemic Fund to bolster outbreak preparedness and response, and East Asian nations are committing political and financial resources to counter biological threats from both natural outbreaks and potential adversaries.
The Vox piece identifies key sources of the next potential pandemic, noting that zoonotic transmission—viruses jumping from animals to humans—is on the rise as human populations expand into previously wild areas. In the last decade, outbreaks like Zika and bird flu have demonstrated significant health and economic impacts. Historically, pandemics stemmed from natural sources, but human activities now introduce new dangers. The number of labs handling the highest-risk biological samples has quadrupled over the past two decades, spanning nearly 150 countries, raising the specter of accidental leaks without adequate safety protocols.
Adding to these concerns, advancements in synthetic biology, automation, and AI are making it easier for malicious actors—be they states, terrorist groups, or individuals—to engineer viruses into weapons. In 2024, the World Health Organization convened scientists to prioritize viral families with pandemic potential. The top threats include the influenza and coronavirus families, responsible for most historical pandemics and capable of evolving into deadlier, more transmissible strains.
Other high-risk groups are the paramyxoviridae family, which encompasses measles and the often deadly Nipah virus; poxviruses like the eradicated smallpox and the emerging mpox, which prompted two WHO global emergency declarations since 2022; and arboviruses such as dengue, which are spreading to new regions including the United States due to climate change and urbanization. 'These top threats have the potential to naturally mutate in a way that poses a novel risk to humans, either by becoming more deadly, spreading more efficiently, or both,' according to the Vox analysis. They can also be artificially manipulated to heighten dangers.
To combat these risks, the article outlines a three-part strategy: preventing the initial emergence of threats, containing them early through detection, and rapidly deploying tests, treatments, and vaccines if containment fails. Prevention efforts focus on reducing zoonotic spillovers by curbing deforestation and regulating wildlife trade. For instance, Brazil implemented policies between 2005 and 2012 that reduced Amazon deforestation by 70 percent while boosting crop production through financial incentives and regulatory changes.
'Deforestation, driven by agriculture and urbanization, creates more opportunities for natural virus spillover around the world. We know how to mitigate that risk: Brazil, for example, put a set of policies in place between 2005 and 2012, including financial incentives and regulatory changes, that rolled back deforestation in the Amazon by 70 percent while increasing crop production.'
Addressing lab safety and bioterrorism, the piece calls for mandatory screening of synthetic DNA and RNA purchases to ensure they go to legitimate researchers, and enforceable rules for high-risk labs—measures that remain largely voluntary in countries like the United States. For early detection, expanding surveillance networks like the global influenza system or the newer Biothreats Emergence, Analysis and Communications Network (BEACON) could provide predictive insights, much like weather forecasts. Technologies such as AI and wastewater monitoring are enhancing these capabilities, while rapid tests for top threats would enable swift identification.
In the event of an outbreak, the goal is to develop and distribute safe vaccines and treatments within 100 days, a timeline that could have saved over 8 million lives during Covid-19, where the process took about 300 days. AI is accelerating this, with initiatives like the U.S. Defense Department's Generative Unconstrained Intelligent Design Engineering (GUIDE) program aiming to slash treatment development from 10 years to 100 days. The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) is leveraging AI to identify vaccine targets in days or hours.
Manufacturing readiness is crucial, with 'plug and play' platforms like mRNA technology allowing quick adaptation to new pathogens. Building a 'warm base' of global facilities by producing vaccines for existing diseases like Ebola, HIV, and seasonal flu would ensure rapid scaling. The Vox article cites estimates from the World Bank and WHO that $31 billion annually is needed for global pandemic preparedness, while the International Monetary Fund suggests $60 billion upfront and $5 billion yearly for vaccination capacity covering 70 percent of the world's population within six months.
Conservatively, $30 billion per year for a decade, plus an initial down payment, could neutralize top threats, a fraction of Covid-19's $14 trillion cost to the U.S. economy through 2023. Focusing on influenza and coronaviruses, CEPI estimated in 2018 that developing broadly protective vaccines could cost $300 to $500 million each, with a $10 billion investment over 10 years sufficient for tests, treatments, and vaccines against these priorities.
While efforts by governments, institutions, and philanthropies are underway, they are described as ad hoc and uncoordinated. The upcoming United Nations High-Level Meeting on Pandemic Prevention, Preparedness, and Response is highlighted as a potential venue for aligning priorities and timelines. Experts quoted in the piece stress that technological breakthroughs from Covid-19 offer an unprecedented chance to act.
The broader implications are profound: preventing pandemics not only saves lives but averts economic devastation. As conflicts and U.S. withdrawal strain global cooperation, public support for joint health initiatives remains strong if they deliver results. Looking ahead, advocates call for urgent investments in low-hanging fruit like universal vaccines for top viral families to blunt risks within the next decade.
With the odds of a catastrophic event—a one in seven chance of a pandemic killing 100 million by 2050—the message is clear: pandemics are no longer inevitable acts of fate but choices shaped by human action or inaction. As the world grapples with these realities, the path forward hinges on leadership to translate scientific potential into concrete defenses.