BEIRUT — A recent poll indicates a notable shift in Syrian public opinion toward warmer relations with the United States and Israel following the overthrow of longtime President Bashar al-Assad, suggesting potential openings for regional stability amid ongoing conflicts.
According to a survey conducted by YouGov and commissioned by the Council for a Secure America, 65 percent of Syrians now view U.S. engagement in their country positively, up sharply from previous sentiments under Assad's regime. The poll, which questioned 260 Syrians aged 18 and older from January 8 to 15, also found that 59 percent believe peace with Israel is likely in the future, with only 14 percent deeming it unlikely. These figures come with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points, drawn from an active panel of 40,000 members.
The survey highlights a broader rejection of Iran-backed groups that dominated under Assad, who maintained close ties with Hezbollah and Tehran. An overwhelming 70 percent of respondents described Hezbollah as having a negative impact on Syria, reflecting disillusionment with external influences that fueled years of civil war and proxy battles.
New Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa, a former al-Qaeda member whose forces successfully ousted Assad in December 2024, appears to be benefiting from this pivot. The poll gave him a 69 percent approval rating for his performance, with just 12 percent rating it poorly and 19 percent undecided. The Trump administration has voiced strong support for Sharaa, even as U.S. forces continue operations against ISIS in the region.
In a related development, U.S. military authorities announced on Saturday large-scale airstrikes targeting multiple ISIS positions in Syria, resulting in the capture or killing of 50 ISIS terrorists. These actions were described as continued retaliation for the killing of two U.S. soldiers, underscoring Washington's dual focus on supporting the new regime while combating lingering extremist threats.
Security cooperation with Israel also garners significant backing, with 64 percent of Syrians supporting such arrangements and only 9 percent opposed. A plurality, 47 percent, favored normalization of ties with Israel once a resolution to the Palestinian issue is achieved, though 40 percent remained undecided and 13 percent opposed.
The poll's findings extend to neighboring Lebanon, where attitudes toward Hezbollah are similarly cooling. In a separate YouGov survey of 252 Lebanese adults last month, also with a plus or minus 5 percentage point margin of error from an 80,000-member panel, 63 percent supported efforts to disarm the group, compared to just 9 percent who opposed. Additionally, 52 percent of Syrians — in a cross-referenced question — said Hezbollah is harming Lebanon's security.
Yet, Lebanese views on the U.S. are more mixed, with 39 percent holding negative opinions versus 27 percent positive, and about one-third neutral. On prospects for peace between Israel and Lebanon, 40 percent of Lebanese respondents said it was likely, against 24 percent who saw it as unlikely.
Support for normalizing relations with Israel after settling the Palestinian-Israeli conflict was notably lower in Lebanon, at about 25 percent, a stark contrast to the Syrian figures. Only 11 percent of Lebanese had a positive view of Hezbollah, with more than one-third offering no opinion.
Jennifer Suton, executive director of the Council for a Secure America, interpreted these results as signs of shifting dynamics in the Middle East. “Council for a Secure America polls demonstrate that Syrian and Lebanese public opinion continues to gravitate away from Hezbollah,” she said. “While Israeli normalization is not yet on the horizon, we are seeing significant shifts in Syria, with a majority believing that eventual peace with Israel is possible.”
Suton added that these trends offer strategic opportunities: “These trends provide an opportunity for the U.S. to reinforce traditional geopolitical partners, weaken proxy forces, promote peace and stability, and discourage external entities from destabilizing the region. We remain cautiously hopeful, but ever-clear-eyed, as historic developments in the Middle East unfold.”
The Council for a Secure America, a group advocating for strong U.S.-Israel ties, energy independence, and the expansion of the Abraham Accords, commissioned the polls to gauge post-Assad sentiments. The Abraham Accords, brokered during the first Trump administration, normalized relations between Israel and several Arab nations, and supporters hope similar paths could emerge in Syria and Lebanon.
Background on Syria's turmoil provides context for these poll numbers. Assad's 13-year civil war, which began in 2011 amid Arab Spring protests, drew in global powers and resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths and millions displaced. His ouster in December 2024 by Sharaa's coalition marked a dramatic end to the Baathist era, but challenges persist, including rebuilding efforts and integrating former rebels into governance.
U.S. involvement has evolved under the current administration. While endorsing Sharaa's leadership, American troops — numbering around 900 in Syria — focus on preventing ISIS resurgence in oil-rich eastern provinces. The recent airstrikes, targeting sites in Deir ez-Zor and other areas, were confirmed by the U.S. Central Command, which stated they neutralized key ISIS leadership and infrastructure.
Experts note that public opinion in post-conflict societies can fluctuate rapidly, influenced by economic recovery and security gains. In Syria, where inflation and unemployment remain high, Sharaa's approval may hinge on delivering tangible benefits from any U.S. or Israeli partnerships. Meanwhile, Iran's influence, once pervasive through Hezbollah and other militias, appears to be waning, as evidenced by the polls' emphasis on the group's negative role.
In Lebanon, economic collapse since 2019 has compounded Hezbollah's vulnerabilities, with the group blamed for escalating tensions with Israel in 2024 border clashes. The poll's support for disarmament aligns with international calls, including from the United Nations, for a weapons-free southern Lebanon under Resolution 1701.
Looking ahead, these surveys suggest a window for diplomatic initiatives. The U.S. has signaled interest in engaging Sharaa's government on counterterrorism and reconstruction aid, potentially tied to commitments against Iranian entrenchment. For Israel, the prospect of Syrian peace could secure its northern border, long threatened by Assad's alliances.
However, skeptics point to Sharaa's jihadist past as a risk factor. While he has pledged moderation, including distancing from al-Qaeda, verification remains ongoing. U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, described the relationship as pragmatic but monitored closely.
As the Middle East navigates these changes, the polls underscore a public weary of proxy wars and eager for stability. Whether this translates into lasting policy shifts will depend on actions by Damascus, Washington, and regional actors in the coming months.