In the wake of mounting political pressures at the federal level, speculation is swirling in South Dakota about whether Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem might abandon her Cabinet post to launch a bid for the U.S. Senate, challenging incumbent Republican Senator Mike Rounds in the state's June primary. The rumors, fueled by Noem's recent stumbles in managing immigration enforcement and a high-profile shooting incident involving federal agents, have allies of Rounds quietly mobilizing defenses, even as those close to Noem insist she has no intention of running. This potential intraparty clash comes at a precarious moment for the Trump administration, with Noem's position reportedly hanging by a thread amid frustrations from White House officials and midterm election concerns.
The catalyst for much of the scrutiny dates back to January 24, when Customs and Border Patrol agents fatally shot Alex Pretti during an operation in Minneapolis. The incident drew immediate backlash, with Democrats calling for Noem's dismissal and Republicans expressing unease over the optics of aggressive deportation tactics. According to three people familiar with internal discussions, Noem's standing with the Trump White House has become increasingly tenuous, prompting worries in her home state that she could pivot to electoral politics as a way to safeguard her career.
Political allies of Senator Rounds, who has held the seat since 2015 after serving two terms as South Dakota's governor, have started preparing for the possibility of a Noem challenge, though they view it as unlikely. To enter the Republican primary, a candidate must register and gather 2,171 signatures from supporters across the state by the end of next month. One adviser to Noem told The Atlantic on a recent day that she has "no plans to leave" her current role, emphasizing her focus on departmental duties.
Yet the incentive for Noem to jump into the race could grow if Democrats regain control of the House in the upcoming midterms and initiate probes into her leadership at the Department of Homeland Security. A Senate seat, sources suggest, would provide her with a professional staff and a robust fundraising apparatus to mount a defense. "It’s something people are talking about across the state," one Republican involved in South Dakota politics said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the rumors. This source added, "And based on everything I’ve been hearing, Mike Rounds would handily win that race."
In recent weeks, Noem has stepped back from some of her high-profile responsibilities in overseeing immigration operations, with President Trump turning instead to White House 'border czar' Tom Homan for leadership on those fronts. Officials in the White House have expressed growing frustration with Noem's performance, particularly as Republican strategists warn that her deportation strategies are inflicting political damage ahead of the midterms. One person familiar with the conversations indicated that Noem's Cabinet spot is "no longer secure," despite the president's public praise and reluctance to act under pressure.
Complicating matters is a partial government shutdown triggered by congressional Democrats' refusal to approve a new budget for the Department of Homeland Security, a standoff projected to persist at least into next week. Republicans argue that the Democratic push for Noem's ouster actually makes it less probable for Trump to remove her in the short term. In his second term, the president has shown a strong aversion to letting political winds dictate Cabinet changes, a pattern observed since his inauguration.
Before the Pretti shooting, pollsters had already begun surveying South Dakota voters on a hypothetical matchup between Rounds and Noem, according to two people who received such calls. The identities of those commissioning the polls remain unknown, and results have not been disclosed. The prospect of Noem entering the fray has even sparked deliberations among Trump's advisers about timing any potential leadership shift at DHS until after the filing deadline next month, per one insider. Others, however, favor an earlier move.
A national Republican strategist offered a stark assessment of Rounds' vulnerabilities, saying, "Mike Rounds is so unpopular amongst Republican primary voters, he’d lose to a dead dog." Allies of the senator, now 71, dismissed the claim, pointing to his track record of four successful statewide Republican victories since 2014, including two gubernatorial terms and two Senate elections. Rounds' office did not respond to requests for comment on the speculation.
The White House, through spokesperson Davis Ingle, pushed back on suggestions of instability in the Cabinet. In a statement, Ingle said, "President Trump has assembled the most talented and America First cabinet and staff in history," before highlighting key administration achievements such as border security enhancements and economic policies. Tricia McLaughlin, a DHS spokesperson, declined to address Noem's political prospects, texting that it would be "not appropriate for a government spokesperson to comment on a story about Noem’s political future." Another Noem adviser confirmed that her team had not conducted polling on a potential Senate run.
Noem and Rounds share a common background as former South Dakota governors—Noem serving from 2019 to 2025 before her Cabinet appointment—but their relationship has been marked by distance and occasional public friction. Tensions surfaced notably after Noem's 2024 book detailed her decision to euthanize her family dog, which she deemed dangerous and untrainable. Rounds criticized the anecdote sharply, stating, "I don’t see how it helps. These dogs become a member of a family, you know. People identify with that."
Trump's dynamic with Rounds has also been uneven, particularly over the 2020 election results, which Rounds called "fair" in contrast to the president's unsubstantiated claims of victory. Despite this, Trump endorsed Rounds over the summer, posting on social media: "HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!" Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Rounds' senior colleague from South Dakota, remains a steadfast ally and would likely support him against Noem in any primary contest.
Beyond the Senate, Noem has other potential paths in South Dakota politics. The state's U.S. House seat, which she occupied from 2011 to 2019, will open next year following Representative Dusty Johnson's announcement of his gubernatorial bid. Noem has previously voiced ambitions for higher office, including interest in serving as a vice presidential running mate or pursuing her own presidential campaign.
The buzz in South Dakota underscores broader anxieties within the Republican Party about internal divisions at a time when unity is seen as crucial for midterm success. Noem's potential exit from DHS could signal deeper turmoil in Trump's immigration agenda, especially as battles rage within the department over enforcement priorities and resource allocation. For now, the speculation remains just that—rumors circulating among political insiders—but the deadline for primary filings looms, potentially forcing clarity on Noem's future.
As the partial shutdown drags on and investigations into the Pretti shooting continue, Noem's decisions in the coming weeks could reshape not only her career but also the balance of power in South Dakota's congressional delegation. Observers in the state, from party operatives to everyday voters, are watching closely, aware that a Rounds-Noem showdown would electrify the primary and test loyalties in a reliably red stronghold. Whether Noem stays the course in Washington or returns home to fight for a Senate seat, her next move promises to reverberate through Republican circles nationwide.