In a striking turn for public safety, the United States has witnessed a profound decline in property crimes over the past three decades, with burglary rates plummeting more than 80 percent since 1990. According to data from the FBI and other national records, the overall property crime rate has dropped 66 percent during that period, reaching the lowest levels since tracking began in 1976. This quiet revolution, as described by experts, has made homes, cars, and personal belongings safer than ever before, even as violent crime rates have also fallen significantly.
The story of this transformation gained renewed attention in recent discussions around holiday traditions, such as the classic film Home Alone, set in 1990. In the Chicago suburb of Winnetka, where the movie takes place, there were 53 burglaries that year, mostly residential, equating to a rate of 435 per 100,000 people—a figure that was relatively low for the era. But in nearby Chicago, the numbers were far more alarming, with over 50,000 burglaries reported, or about 1,800 per 100,000 residents. Nationally, the burglary rate exceeded 1,200 per 100,000, contributing to a property crime peak that experts say was among the highest in U.S. history.
"The idea that a couple of bandits might break into your home while you were off on a Paris vacation wasn’t far-fetched," noted a recent analysis in Vox, reflecting on the film's premise and the era's realities. In 1990, the overall property crime rate hovered around 5,000 incidents per 100,000 people annually, meaning roughly one crime for every 20 residents on average. These crimes were not evenly distributed; they concentrated in certain urban neighborhoods, creating environments where theft felt like an inescapable part of daily life.
Financially, the toll was immense. The average residential burglary in 1990 resulted in losses of $2,800 to $3,400, adjusted for inflation, while total property crime losses nationwide approached $40 billion. Beyond dollars, the human cost was steep: one estimate suggests that about one in four robberies involved physical injury to victims, and roughly one in 10 murders stemmed from felonies like robbery or burglary. Based on homicide data from the time, this could mean up to 2,500 lives lost annually in incidents that started as thefts.
Underreporting likely exacerbated the problem, as high-crime settings discouraged people from notifying police about minor thefts due to low expectations of resolution. "Police-reported crime is partly a measure of crime and partly a measure of reporting crime," the Vox analysis explained. "In a high-crime environment, people often stop calling the police for ‘smaller’ thefts — because the expectation becomes that nothing will happen, or because the hassle isn’t worth it."
Fast forward to today, and the landscape has shifted dramatically. Burglary rates in Chicago have fallen by levels similar to the national trend, while even affluent areas like Winnetka have seen drops exceeding 60 percent. The most recent data shows a 9 percent decline in property crimes between 2023 and 2024—the sharpest single-year drop on record—continuing a steady downward trajectory that has persisted across economic cycles, political administrations, and diverse urban settings.
Experts attribute this decline to a combination of technological, societal, and behavioral changes that have made property crimes harder to commit, less profitable, and riskier to attempt. Homes and apartments, for instance, are now fortified with superior door and window locks, sturdier frames, enhanced outdoor lighting, and controlled entry systems in many buildings. Alarms have become more affordable, and neighborhoods are networked with informal surveillance through devices like Amazon’s Ring doorbell cameras, building security feeds, and community apps such as Nextdoor.
A 2021 academic paper highlighted in the analysis directly ties the burglary drop to these security enhancements. "Burglary is an opportunity crime," the paper's findings suggest, as quoted in Vox. "If it takes longer to break in and burglars are more likely to be spotted, fewer people will try — and fewer will succeed." Interestingly, the average age of burglars has risen, indicating that younger individuals are deterred by the increased difficulty.
The value of stolen goods has also diminished relative to the risks involved. In 1990, electronics and cash were easy targets for quick resale. Today, much consumer technology can be remotely disabled or tracked via apps, and products are cheaper overall in a wealthier society. "One plus of living in a richer society — which America very much is compared to 1990 — is that the wages of crime pay less comparatively," the Vox report stated.
Cash itself has become scarcer in everyday transactions, reducing the payoff for robberies. People carry less paper money, opting for credit cards, mobile payments, and electronic transfers. A study in Missouri linked the state's transition from paper welfare checks to electronic benefit transfers with a noticeable crime reduction, a pattern echoed in broader commercial shifts away from cash.
Surveillance technology has further tilted the scales. Doorbell cameras and smartphones not only deter criminals but also aid in identification and rapid response. "Doorbell cameras don’t just ward off potential burglars — they provide far more specific identification if someone still tries," according to the analysis. Smartphones allow instant calls for help, photo sharing of suspects, and device tracking—capabilities unimaginable in 1990, when even a landline might fail, as depicted in Home Alone.
Despite these advances, challenges persist. While physical burglaries and robberies have waned, new forms of property crime have emerged in digital and bureaucratic realms. Scams, account takeovers, and identity fraud now cost Americans tens of billions annually. The FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center reported $16.6 billion in losses from online crimes in 2024, while the U.S. Postal Service estimated at least 58 million packages stolen that year, totaling up to $16 billion in damages—often from porch piracy, a theft type nonexistent in 1990.
"A lot of modern predation is more virtual and more bureaucratic: scams, account takeovers, and worst of all, identity fraud," the Vox piece observed. These shifts redefine safety, with ubiquitous cameras raising privacy concerns and the decline of cash potentially widening inequalities by limiting financial anonymity. Smartphones, while protective against theft, introduce their own societal drawbacks.
Broader implications underscore a safer era for physical property, even if virtual threats loom large. "For our stuff, as well as for our lives, there’s an argument to be made that Americans are safer now than they have ever been," the analysis concluded. As society evolves, experts suggest continued investment in both traditional security and cyber defenses to address emerging risks.
Looking ahead, the trajectory points to sustained vigilance. With property crime at historic lows, communities are better positioned to tackle residual issues like package theft and online fraud. Policymakers and law enforcement, drawing from the successes of the past decades, may focus on integrating technology ethically while ensuring equitable access to protective measures across socioeconomic lines.