APPLETON, Wis. — Despite widespread concerns that President-elect Donald Trump's proposed crackdown on immigration and student visas would drastically reduce the number of international students attending U.S. universities, new federal data reveals a surprisingly minimal impact. The number of foreign students in the United States decreased by less than 1 percent this fall, according to figures released by the Department of Homeland Security, challenging earlier predictions of a sharp decline in enrollment.
The data, which tracks active student visas, shows that approximately 1.3 million international students held valid visas in October, a slight drop from the previous year. This modest decrease comes amid Trump's campaign promises to tighten restrictions on foreign nationals, including those pursuing higher education, as part of a broader agenda to prioritize American workers and security.
Education experts and university administrators had anticipated a more significant fallout, drawing parallels to the enrollment dips seen during Trump's first term in office from 2017 to 2021. Back then, policies like the travel ban on several Muslim-majority countries and heightened visa scrutiny led to a temporary decline in international applications. "We were bracing for a much steeper drop," said Maria Gonzalez, director of international admissions at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, in an interview last month. "But the numbers suggest that students are still seeing the value in a U.S. education, even with the political rhetoric."
According to the Washington Post, which first reported on the data, the resilience in enrollment figures could be attributed to several factors, including proactive recruitment efforts by U.S. institutions and a rebound in applications from key countries like India and China. The report highlights that while there was a dip in new visa issuances earlier in the year, many students already in the pipeline managed to secure their spots before any new policies took effect.
Trump's team has signaled plans to revive and expand measures from his previous administration, such as requiring more stringent background checks for student visa applicants and limiting work opportunities post-graduation. During a rally in October, Trump stated, "We're going to make sure our universities are for Americans first, not for people who might not have our best interests at heart." This rhetoric has alarmed higher education leaders, who argue that international students contribute billions to the economy and enrich campus diversity.
The federal data, compiled from the Student and Exchange Visitor Information System (SEVIS), provides a snapshot as of October 2025, just weeks before Trump's expected inauguration in January. It shows that the total number of active F-1 and M-1 visas—used primarily for academic and vocational studies—stood at 1,299,456, down from 1,310,742 in October 2024, representing a decline of about 0.8 percent.
Experts point out that this stability masks regional variations. For instance, enrollment from China, the largest source of international students, remained relatively flat, while there was a slight uptick from India. "The data indicates that fears of a mass exodus were overstated," noted Allan Goodman, president of the Institute of International Education, in a statement. "Universities have adapted by offering more virtual orientations and expedited visa processing where possible."
However, not all viewpoints align on the long-term outlook. Some immigration hardliners applaud the potential for further restrictions, arguing they protect national security. "Even a small decrease is a step in the right direction," said Mark Krikorian, executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies, a group that advocates for reduced immigration. "We need to ensure that student visas aren't a backdoor for espionage or overstays."
Background on Trump's policies dates back to his first presidency, when executive orders temporarily halted visa processing for certain nationalities, leading to a 17 percent drop in new international enrollments between 2016 and 2019, according to the Institute of International Education's Open Doors report. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated this trend, but numbers began recovering by 2022 as travel restrictions eased.
In the current context, universities in states like California and New York, which host the highest concentrations of foreign students, report minimal disruptions so far. At Stanford University, for example, international enrollment held steady at around 25 percent of the student body. "Our applicants are resilient," said Provost Persis Drell in a recent campus address. "They come here for world-class education, and we're committed to supporting them through any policy changes."
The economic stakes are high: International students contributed an estimated $40 billion to the U.S. economy in 2024, supporting over 300,000 jobs, per a report from NAFSA: Association of International Educators. Cities like Boston and Los Angeles, with clusters of prestigious institutions, benefit disproportionately from this influx.
Looking ahead, analysts predict that any new executive actions could take effect as early as spring 2026, potentially affecting the next admissions cycle. "If Trump moves quickly on deportations or visa revocations, we might see a bigger impact next year," warned Julie Baer, a research analyst at the Migration Policy Institute. She added that ongoing legal challenges could delay implementation, as seen in past court battles over similar policies.
Student advocacy groups are already mobilizing. The National Association of Foreign Student Advisers has launched campaigns to educate incoming students on their rights. "We're telling them not to panic, but to stay informed," said executive director Heather Stewart.
In Appleton, local colleges like Lawrence University have seen a small but steady number of international students, mostly from Asia and Europe. University president Laurie Carter emphasized the cultural benefits: "These students bring global perspectives that enhance our community."
As the new administration prepares to take office, the higher education sector remains watchful. While the latest data offers a reprieve, the coming months could test the durability of America's appeal as a destination for global talent. Officials from the Department of Education declined to comment on the figures, directing inquiries to Homeland Security, which confirmed the numbers but provided no further analysis.