CANBERRA, Australia — As turmoil grips Australia's Liberal Party, speculation is mounting about whether former Treasurer Josh Frydenberg could stage a political comeback to bolster the opposition's flagging fortunes. With current leader Sussan Ley facing internal criticism and the party wrestling with its stance on net zero emissions, some insiders are eyeing Frydenberg, who lost his seat in 2022, as a potential savior amid a leadership crisis that could extend the Liberals' time in opposition.
The latest salvo came from Victorian Senator Sarah Henderson, a right-wing figure and vocal opponent of net zero targets. In a pointed remark on Friday, Henderson said, “I do have to say, really honestly, I do think Sussan is losing support. But I do believe in miracles, we can turn things around. But things are not good. I don’t support things the way they are at the moment.” Henderson's comments, delivered amid growing unrest, stopped short of calling for a leadership spill but underscored the precarious position of Ley, the party's first female leader.
Most observers, according to political analysis from The Conversation, believe Ley will eventually be forced out by her party, with the only question being the timeline. Removing her this year would be viewed as unseemly, and as of now, no immediate move is expected. The party's internal dynamics are complicated by rivalries, including shadow treasurer Angus Taylor, who is seen as Ley's main challenger but has publicly denied any ambition to topple her. Taylor stated he was not challenging Ley, a response echoed by other colleagues in a show of surface-level unity.
Adding to the mix, Senator Jane Hume, a moderate who had previously criticized Ley after being overlooked for a frontbench role, offered support. Hume, who voted for Taylor in past contests, said, “I think Sussan has been really consistent in her messaging since she was elected. She has wanted to lower emissions, but not at any cost.” Hume's backing highlights the ideological divides within the party, as she is a strong proponent of net zero, contrasting with Henderson's opposition.
The coming week promises to be pivotal for Ley and the opposition. A series of meetings are scheduled to hash out the party's position on energy and emissions. On Wednesday, the Liberal party room will convene for a general discussion, followed by a shadow ministry meeting on Thursday where opposition energy spokesman Dan Tehan will present a submission on policy. Liberals have been instructed to attend in person unless ill or overseas on parliamentary business, a directive that has prompted some grumbling about inconvenience.
Following the Liberal discussions, a joint committee of three senior Liberals and three senior Nationals will meet to align on a coalition position. This will culminate in a virtual joint parties meeting on Sunday for endorsement, subject to agreement from both sides. The process is fraught with risk; if the parties cannot reconcile their views, the coalition could fracture or agree to disagree, potentially destabilizing the opposition further.
The Nationals, coalition partners to the Liberals, announced last Sunday that they had abandoned their commitment to net zero by 2050. As of Friday, the Liberals' own stance remained unclear, with their existing pledge to net zero appearing doomed. Options under consideration include dropping any mention of net zero or framing it as a distant aspiration. The fluidity of the situation suggests intense behind-the-scenes maneuvering in the days ahead.
Beyond the immediate policy battles, the Liberal Party faces a deeper leadership dilemma. Analysts note that potential replacements like Taylor or even Andrew Hastie, a long-shot contender, are not widely seen as capable of returning the party to power. Few in the current parliamentary ranks stand out as viable options, leading to questions about external talent. This has fueled talk of Frydenberg's return, the former treasurer who was ousted from his Kooyong seat in the 2022 election by independent teal candidate Monique Ryan.
Frydenberg, now 54 and holding a senior role in the banking sector, has kept his political ambitions alive. He has ensured his supporters maintain control of the Liberal Party apparatus in Kooyong, and his upcoming autobiography, co-authored with respected writer Gideon Haigh, is set for release next year. Speculation about his intentions will intensify if he does not clarify his plans by then.
In the most recent election, Ryan narrowly defeated Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer with a two-candidate preferred vote of 50.67% to 49.33%. Hamer is now pursuing preselection for the state Liberal seat of Malvern, potentially clearing a path for Frydenberg without the optics of displacing a female candidate who nearly won. Kooyong, located in Melbourne's inner east, presents challenges with its high proportion of renters, though a pre-2022 redistribution added some Liberal-friendly areas.
“Kooyong has become a hard electorate for a Liberal candidate, with a high proportion of renters; on the other hand, the redistribution before the last election put some Liberal territory in. Ryan would be hard to dislodge but Frydenberg would have name recognition, having won the seat four times.”This assessment comes from political commentary highlighting Frydenberg's advantages and risks.
From Frydenberg's perspective, a comeback bid involves multiple gambles. Kos Samaras of RedBridge political consultancy outlined three key challenges: winning back the seat, gaining support from a party increasingly dominated by regional conservatives, and persuading that party to adopt a moderate conservative platform appealing to urban voters. At 54, the next election represents Frydenberg's last realistic chance to re-enter politics, with extensive polling expected in Kooyong as he deliberates.
For the Liberal Party, Frydenberg's return could expand leadership options and attract high-profile recruits and business backing. As a centrist with strong economic credentials, he might effectively challenge the government on fiscal matters, though critics could paint him as a relic of the past. Compared to the current lineup, however, he is viewed favorably by some observers.
The broader context is a Liberal Party staring at least two terms in opposition, battered by the 2022 election losses to teals and Labor. The net zero debate exacerbates tensions between moderates and conservatives, mirroring global shifts in climate policy. If Ley navigates the upcoming meetings successfully, her position may stabilize temporarily, but the underlying fractures suggest ongoing instability.
Looking ahead, the party's ability to unify on emissions and leadership will determine its electoral viability. With Frydenberg's potential return hanging in the balance, the Liberals' path forward remains uncertain, as they grapple with ideological rifts and the search for a leader who can resonate with a changing electorate.