SAN FRANCISCO — At the third annual Cerebral Valley conference held here on Thursday, more than 300 AI industry insiders anonymously shared their predictions and sentiments about the fast-evolving world of artificial intelligence, revealing a mix of optimism for certain players and skepticism toward others in the sector.
The event, organized by journalist Eric Newcomer, drew a crowd primarily composed of AI company founders, venture capitalists, engineers, product leaders, and media representatives. Attendees participated in an on-stage survey that captured median forecasts and preferences, offering a rare unfiltered glimpse into the private thoughts of those shaping the AI landscape. According to Alex Heath, who attended the conference and reported on it for The Verge, the results highlighted bold expectations for revenue growth and market valuations amid intensifying competition.
One of the standout predictions centered on OpenAI's financial trajectory. Survey participants pegged the median annualized revenue for the ChatGPT creator at $30 billion by the end of 2026, underscoring confidence in its ability to monetize generative AI tools despite ongoing regulatory scrutiny and internal challenges. Heath noted that this figure reflects the industry's belief in OpenAI's dominance in consumer and enterprise applications.
Similarly bullish sentiments extended to hardware giant Nvidia, with the median forecast placing its market capitalization at $6 trillion by the end of 2026. This projection comes as Nvidia's GPUs power much of the AI training and inference worldwide, fueling a stock surge that has already made it one of the most valuable companies globally. Insiders' enthusiasm points to sustained demand for AI infrastructure, even as concerns about supply chain bottlenecks and energy consumption linger in broader discussions.
The survey also delved into investment envy among venture capital firms. Andreessen Horowitz topped the list as the firm whose AI portfolio elicited the most jealousy, followed by Khosla Ventures and Sequoia Capital. These rankings suggest that early bets on foundational AI technologies have positioned these investors favorably in what many describe as a high-stakes gold rush.
When asked which private tech companies they would most like to invest in today, respondents overwhelmingly favored Anthropic in first place, with OpenAI close behind. Rounding out the top five were Cursor, a code-generation startup; Anduril, known for defense AI; SpaceX, Elon Musk's aerospace venture; and OpenEvidence, an AI tool for medical research. This lineup indicates a broadening interest beyond pure-play AI labs to applications in software development, national security, space exploration, and healthcare.
Looking ahead to model performance, the audience predicted that OpenAI's offerings would lead the LMSYS Arena web development leaderboard by the end of 2026, with Anthropic in second, followed by Google's Gemini, xAI's Grok, and Alibaba's Qwen. These choices highlight expectations that U.S.-based labs will maintain an edge in practical coding tasks, though international contenders like Qwen signal growing global competition.
On the flip side, the survey exposed doubts about certain high-valuation startups. Perplexity, an AI search engine valued at over $1 billion, emerged as the top pick for short-selling, with OpenAI unexpectedly in second place. Other nominees included Cursor, robotics firm Figure, legal AI company Harvey, hiring platform Mercor, French startup Mistral, and Thinking Machines. Heath observed that Perplexity's lead in this category may stem from questions about its business model's sustainability in a market crowded with search alternatives.
"Buy Anthropic. Short Perplexity," Heath summarized the crowd's vibe in his newsletter, capturing the contrarian undercurrents at play.
Beyond the numbers, breakout sessions at the conference shed light on the mechanics of talent acquisition in AI. Discussions focused on so-called reverse acquihires, where tech giants buy startups primarily to onboard key personnel rather than their products. Examples included Meta's deal with Scale AI to hire CEO Alexandr Wang and Google's acquisitions of Character AI and Windsurf, both aimed at bolstering expertise in generative models and user interfaces.
Participants attributed these moves to a combination of factors. Antitrust regulators' increased oversight of Big Tech mergers has made traditional acquisitions riskier, pushing companies toward these talent-focused arrangements. One AI founder, who had received multiple such offers, recounted a conversation with a Big Tech corporate development executive who simply asked, "How much do you want your startup to be valued for a deal?" This anecdote illustrates the aggressive bidding wars for scarce expertise.
"They have seemingly 'infinite money,' as one member of the group put it," Heath reported, emphasizing how larger firms view talent as a finite resource in the race to innovate. Engineers and researchers capable of advancing large language models are in short supply, driving premiums that can exceed traditional startup valuations.
The conference also marked a notable shift in conversational priorities compared to past years. At the inaugural event in 2022, artificial general intelligence—or AGI, the hypothetical point at which machines match human cognition across all tasks—was a dominant theme. One speaker back then warned that "we’re going to be dead" by the time OpenAI releases something like GPT-10, evoking fears of existential disruption.
This year, however, AGI barely registered in onstage dialogues. Instead, panels zeroed in on commercial viability: how AI can drive revenue through enterprise software, developer tools, and specialized applications. Heath pointed out that several companies featured at the first conference, like those now valued in the billions, didn't even exist three years ago, fueling a palpable sense of urgency to capture market share.
Amid the forward momentum, a undercurrent of bubble anxiety threaded through the day. Attendees expressed wariness about overhyping unproven technologies, yet the focus remained pragmatic—on building products that enterprises and consumers will pay for. Newcomer's event, now a staple for Silicon Valley's AI elite, underscored the industry's maturation from speculative futurism to cutthroat business strategy.
As the AI sector hurtles toward these ambitious 2026 benchmarks, the survey results suggest a polarized path: explosive growth for frontrunners like OpenAI and Nvidia, while challengers face skepticism. With talent wars escalating and business models under the microscope, insiders appear more focused than ever on execution. The Cerebral Valley gathering, held amid San Francisco's foggy backdrop, served as a barometer for an industry betting big on its own potential, even as it navigates regulatory headwinds and competitive pressures.
Looking ahead, the predictions could influence investment flows and strategic decisions. If OpenAI hits that $30 billion revenue mark, it would solidify its position as a trillion-dollar contender. Nvidia's trajectory, meanwhile, hinges on continued AI adoption across sectors from autonomous vehicles to drug discovery. For startups like Perplexity, the short-sell vote is a cautionary signal to prove their worth before valuations deflate.