Quantum computing stocks surged this week after the U.S. government announced it was taking equity stakes in nine companies, including IBM, as part of President Donald Trump's administration efforts to acquire shares in private sector firms. The move has sparked widespread speculation among investors about which company could be targeted next for similar government involvement.
Traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi have placed their bets accordingly, assigning a 32 percent chance that IonQ will receive a government stake sometime in 2026. IonQ, a quantum computing company that was notably absent from the recent Thursday announcement, saw its stock climb more than 12 percent on the initial news before rising an additional 7 percent on Friday.
Another name drawing significant attention is Anduril Industries, which traders give a 31 percent probability of securing a U.S. government stake this year. The California-based defense technology company, founded by Palmer Luckey, recently completed a funding round that doubled its valuation to $61 billion. Anduril has maintained close ties with the Trump administration, including collaboration on the proposed Golden Dome missile defense system.
Micron Technology rounds out the top contenders, with traders assigning it 28 percent odds of receiving a government stake. The company's shares have already jumped more than 160 percent in 2026 amid a memory chip shortage driven by the ongoing artificial intelligence buildout.
According to the contracts on Kalshi, these predictions are only resolved as yes if an official announcement is made or verified directly by the company or a government agency. The platform's traders are focusing on firms that could align with broader administration priorities in technology and defense sectors.
Reports from August, coinciding with the initial revelation of the U.S. stake in Intel, suggested the government was also considering a position in Micron. That proposal ultimately did not materialize, and the White House indicated it would not pursue stakes in chip companies that are already increasing their investments in the United States.
Representatives for Micron, Anduril, and IonQ could not be immediately reached for comment on the latest trader predictions. The developments come as the administration continues to expand its footprint in strategic industries through equity acquisitions rather than traditional subsidies or loans.
Market observers note that the government's approach marks a shift toward direct ownership in companies working on critical technologies like quantum computing and advanced defense systems. This strategy has already influenced stock movements across related sectors, with quantum-focused firms experiencing notable volatility following the IBM announcement.
Palmer Luckey's Anduril has positioned itself as a key player in national security technology, and its recent valuation surge reflects growing investor confidence in its government partnerships. The company's work on the Golden Dome project underscores the administration's emphasis on missile defense capabilities.
Meanwhile, Micron's strong performance this year highlights the demand pressures from artificial intelligence infrastructure, which has created shortages in memory components. Any future government stake could further bolster the company's expansion plans within the United States.
IonQ's stock reaction demonstrates how even companies not directly included in the initial round of stakes can benefit from broader market sentiment around government support for quantum technologies. The 12 percent jump on Thursday and subsequent 7 percent gain on Friday illustrate the rapid investor response to these developments.
CNBC maintains a commercial relationship with Kalshi that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment, a disclosure noted in the reporting on these prediction markets. The platform continues to attract traders interested in political and economic outcomes tied to administration policies.
Officials have not confirmed any additional stakes beyond the nine companies announced earlier this week, leaving room for continued speculation in prediction markets. The contracts on Kalshi will remain open until an official verification occurs or the year concludes without further announcements.
Industry analysts are watching closely to see whether the administration's equity acquisition strategy extends into other areas of semiconductor manufacturing or emerging defense technologies. The current focus on quantum and AI-related firms suggests a targeted approach to bolstering U.S. competitiveness in high-tech sectors.