PHOENIX — The stage is set for another thrilling chapter in women's college basketball as the Final Four semifinals unfold Friday night at State Farm Stadium. Top-seeded UConn will face South Carolina at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN, followed by a matchup between UCLA and Texas at 9:30 p.m. ET. These games pit familiar rivals against each other, with UConn and South Carolina renewing their rivalry from last year's national championship, while UCLA seeks revenge against Texas after a lopsided loss earlier in the season.
The lineup evokes memories of the 2025 Final Four, where these elite programs clashed in the semifinals. UConn, the defending champions, enter undefeated and chasing a 13th national title. They dominated South Carolina twice last season, including an 82-59 victory in the championship game in Tampa, Florida, where Azzi Fudd erupted for a combined 52 points across the two meetings. "The Huskies won in Columbia 87-58 in February 2025 and then dominated South Carolina again," according to ESPN analysts covering the event.
South Carolina, under coach Dawn Staley, has reloaded with transfers and rising stars, aiming to erase the sting of that 23-point title game defeat. The Gamecocks showed resilience in their regional wins, including a 26-point victory over Notre Dame in the Elite Eight fueled by sharp three-point shooting. They rank fourth nationally in three-point accuracy at 37.7%, a weapon that could prove crucial against UConn's versatile offense.
Meanwhile, Texas and UCLA bring their own history to the court. The Longhorns handed the Bruins their only loss of the season, a 76-65 win on Nov. 26 in Las Vegas during the inaugural Players Era Championship. Texas led by 20 at halftime that day, overwhelming UCLA with physical defense. The Bruins responded with a 29-game winning streak, second only to UConn's 54 consecutive victories.
Star power defines this Final Four. UConn boasts first-team All-Americans Sarah Strong and Azzi Fudd, with Strong, the top prospect from the 2024 class, positioned as a potential AP Player of the Year. South Carolina's Joyce Edwards, a second-team All-American and No. 3 recruit from 2024, could match Strong in the frontcourt. Texas features Madison Booker, another first-team honoree averaging 19.3 points, while UCLA relies on Lauren Betts, who ESPN's Andrea Adelson calls the most important player on the floor Friday.
Betts reflected on the earlier loss to Texas, saying, "I think the biggest difference looking back at the film is just creating opportunities to get the ball as much as I can. They're a really amazing defensive team. I think as the guards are getting pressured on the perimeter, just trying to become so open that they just can't, like, not give me the ball. Coming out with a certain level of aggression is going to be really important. I'm going to make sure I do that from the very beginning." In that November game, Betts played 37 minutes but managed only eight points and seven rebounds, a performance UCLA cannot repeat if it hopes to advance.
For South Carolina against UConn, analysts highlight the matchup between Edwards and Strong. ESPN's Kareem Copeland noted Edwards' potential, saying, "If anyone has a chance to match AP Player of the Year Sarah Strong's production in the frontcourt, it's Edwards. ... When Edwards is at her best, she's a matchup nightmare despite not playing beyond the arc." Edwards was limited to 10 points on 4-for-12 shooting in last year's title game, adding motivation for a stronger showing.
Texas' defensive anchor, point guard Rori Harmon, draws praise from ESPN's Charlie Creme as the key to the UCLA game. "Defense is what Texas does best, and it starts with Harmon," Creme wrote. "The pressure she applies to other point guards can cripple an offense." Harmon boasts a nation-leading assist-to-turnover ratio, with 29 assists to nine turnovers in the tournament, and forced UCLA's Charlisse Leger-Walker into six turnovers in their prior meeting.
The UConn-South Carolina clash could hinge on South Carolina's scoring punch, particularly from Edwards and transfer Ta'Niya Latson, who led the nation in scoring last season at Florida State. Copeland emphasized, "South Carolina has to outscore (duh!) the offensive juggernaut that is UConn. ... Stars have to shine in games such as these, and South Carolina will need every point it can muster to knock off an undefeated No. 1 seed that's chasing history." UConn, however, has weapons like Blanca Quiñonez, averaging 17.3 points in the tournament, including 20 against Notre Dame.
Three-point shooting may decide the Gamecocks' fate, as Adelson pointed out: "There is no doubt South Carolina is a better shooting team than last year when they played, and the addition of Latson has certainly helped with that." Yet in their three losses this season—to Texas twice and Oklahoma—South Carolina went 10-for-40 from deep. Leaning on Tessa Johnson's 64.7% tournament three-point shooting could counter UConn's stars.
In the Texas-UCLA semifinal, turnovers loom large. Creme observed that Texas struggled with ball security in January losses to LSU and South Carolina, committing 17 and 22 turnovers, but improved in rematches. Texas coach Vic Schaefer stressed this Thursday, "If his team takes care of the ball, it has a good chance to win." UCLA coughed up a season-high 20 turnovers against Texas in November, a stat the Bruins must avoid for revenge.
Defense will be paramount, with Copeland noting Texas' top-ranked unit that held UCLA to a season-low score previously. "The Longhorns are the best defensive team in the country and physically bully teams into submission," he said. Containing Booker, who averages 22.5 points in the tournament at 58.6% shooting, will test UCLA's schemes, especially since Harmon has scored in double figures just four times since February.
Predictions from ESPN's panel lean toward the favorites, though not without dissent. For UConn-South Carolina, Adelson forecasts UConn 70-60, citing defensive inconsistencies for the Gamecocks. Copeland bucks the trend, picking South Carolina 74-71, arguing the lingering pain from last year's loss fuels an upset: "Rarely the underdog, Dawn Staley gets her team primed for an upset of historical proportions." Creme, Philippou, and Voepel all favor UConn, with scores of 80-72, 72-64, and 70-66, respectively, emphasizing Strong and Fudd's star power. Voepel added, "It is tough to pick against an unbeaten team. ... This probably will be a close game, with Strong as the ultimate difference-maker."
The Texas-UCLA picks are unanimous for the Longhorns. Adelson sees 65-57, praising Texas' imposing defense observed at the SEC tournament. Copeland predicts 70-64, highlighting Booker's edge. Creme calls for 72-67, noting Texas' balanced attack, while Philippou and Voepel project 76-69 and 77-71, citing momentum and slow starts by UCLA. Voepel said, "The Bruins have shown some propensity for slow starts, and that could be fatal against a Texas team that pounces defensively on opponents from the tip."
Regardless of Friday's outcomes, the winners will vie for the 2026 national championship Sunday, continuing a surge in women's basketball popularity. UConn's quest for history, South Carolina's redemption arc, UCLA's streak preservation, and Texas' defensive dominance all promise high drama. As these teams take the floor in Phoenix, the focus remains on execution under the brightest lights, with legacies on the line.